Friday, 27 June 2014

b.Who Would Hear Me Cry?

The last part is here:   xox - Banks Are Now Fucked

I had failed in business before. It was a truly painful experience. It took me many years to recover.

Now I see my business development in a much clearer light.

When the business is small, it will have small problems. But each small problem can kill any progress. Luckily these problems are small in nature. As long as I am careful not to over-stretch my reach, these problems will always go away when I have given them enough rubbing. The small business will survive somehow.

I don't have a chance to operate a large business. What I know are normally read from the media and from the business operators in my transactions. Recently I noticed many large companies are selling their buildings to shore up their books. They even agreed with the reit buyers that they would rent back their buildings at 7% p.a. in rental returns for the next 15-20 years. On top of that, these businesses even guaranteed their buildings to be fully tenanted. Why such poor terms?

[These business owners are fucking dumb. At 7% p.a. rental, at exactly 14 years, the reit owner would have gotten back his cash purchase 100%. The reit owner needn't  worry as the building is normally very purposed built for the current incumbent. The fucking business got nowhere to go! 

This simply means the business cost is still high, if not, higher than before.]

Based on normal business development, it is usual for the successful company to buy up their own pad to operate their business. This will ensure that the cost of operating from the production premises to be fixed and not keep adjusting through the years by their greedy landlord.

Unfortunately in certain fucken little island, such a purchase decision is bad. The premise would normally go for very high price, i.e., the instalment payment is way more expensive compared to pure rental. Nonetheless, since the company is successful, such a purchase decision is very sound. Given the current healthy cashflow, the bank is also very supportive. A purchase is then made.

Unknown to the business owner, all businesses go in cycle, i.e., boom and bang. In harder times, the business owner got no choice but to release the property again into the market. He simply can't afford to pay the super high instalment due to poor business cashflow. The market is bad. The reit vultures swoon in for the kill. They create very bad terms for the property purchase, i.e., low selling price and very high rental per month for very long period. Soon after, the business still goes belly-up due to ever increasing operating costs.

The big countries did it right. They move on to cheaper countries for their production and business.

This is very sad. Many of such big businesses were so sexy and suave that I can't even talk to their ceos. They stopped treating me as a friend. They were so high up there.

Well. Big business means big problems. One small wrong move, the banks would still bankrupt the business owner, as the bank wouldn't lend any money unless it is personally guaranteed by the business owner himself.

I don't have tears for these business owners. I was never treated well by any one of them anyway. It is fun to see them boomed and banged within one life-cycle. Small people small joy. Big people big bang. I had always chose to be a small person.

My father is damn good. He always advocate cash. Now I truly learned his value. Love him deep deep.

Monday, 23 June 2014

b.To Strange Land

The last part is here:   Strategy - Strangeness In White Land

With the world cup well underway, the strangeness in white land is so unique that I am now brought to a new height. Now they are offering me to buy a white land that is a few times bigger than some of my current assets. They are so awfully nice. The reason is the land owner is a second-generation that refuses to return to that birth place that once nurtured him. He said it was too much of a burden. He has let go and moved on.

I smiled. They are so sweet. They even throw in a very large lake connected by a long river for my pleasure. They said the water is very sweet and full of minerals. I am only interested in the lake view. LOL.

A nice show:   同桌的你
The value in romance is not the look of the young gal but the passage that traversed by both the guy and the gal. The value is maximum when the connection is perfected.

Let's enjoy the show ...

Sunday, 22 June 2014

p.The Butterfly Effect

The last part is here:   Why I Am Not A Politician?

The Butterfly Effect

The idea that one butterfly could eventually have a far-reaching ripple effect on subsequent historic events first appears in "A Sound of Thunder", a 1952 short story by Ray Bradbury about time travel.

In 1961, Edward Lorenz was using a numerical computer model to rerun a weather prediction, when, as a shortcut on a number in the sequence, he entered the decimal 0.506 instead of entering the full 0.506127. The result was a completely different weather scenario. In 1963 Lorenz published a theoretical study of this effect in a well-known paper called Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow. (As noted in the paper, the calculations were performed on a Royal McBee LPD-30 computing machine.) Elsewhere he said that "One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a seagull's wings could change the course of weather forever." Following suggestions from colleagues, in later speeches and papers Lorenz used the more poetic butterfly. According to Lorenz, when he failed to provide a title for a talk he was to present at the 139th meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in 1972, Philip Merilees concocted Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas? as a title. Although a butterfly flapping its wings has remained constant in the expression of this concept, the location of the butterfly, the consequences, and the location of the consequences have varied widely.

The phrase refers to the idea that a butterfly's wings might create tiny changes in the atmosphere that may ultimately alter the path of a tornado or delay, accelerate or even prevent the occurrence of a tornado in another location. Note that the butterfly does not power or directly create the tornado. The flap of the wings is a part of the initial conditions; one set of conditions leads to a tornado while the other set of conditions doesn't. The flapping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of the system, which causes a chain of events leading to large-scale alterations of events (compare: domino effect). Had the butterfly not flapped its wings, the trajectory of the system might have been vastly different - it's also possible that the set of conditions without the butterfly flapping its wings is the set that leads to a tornado. 

Butterfly Upon A Wheel

"Who breaks a butterfly upon a wheel?" is a quotation – sometimes misquoted with "on" in place of "upon" – from Alexander Pope's "Epistle to Dr Arbuthnot" of January 1735. It alludes to "breaking on the wheel", a form of torture in which victims had their long bones broken by an iron bar while tied to a Catherine wheel.

The line "Who breaks a butterfly upon a wheel?" forms line 308 of the "Epistle to Dr Arbuthnot" in which Alexander Pope responded to his physician's word of caution about making satirical attacks on powerful people by sending him a selection of such attacks. It appears in a section on the courtier John Hervey, 2nd Baron Hervey, who was close to Queen Caroline and was one of Pope's bitterest enemies.

The section opens as follows:

Let Sporus tremble –"What? that thing of silk,   
Sporus, that mere white curd of ass's milk? 
Satire or sense, alas! can Sporus feel? 
Who breaks a butterfly upon a wheel?" 
Yet let me flap this bug with gilded wings, 
This painted child of dirt that stinks and stings; 
Whose buzz the witty and the fair annoys, 
Yet wit ne'er tastes, and beauty ne'er enjoys, 

Sporus, a homosexual favoured by Emperor Nero, was, according to Suetonius, castrated by the emperor, and subsequently married. Pope here refers to accusations made in Pulteney's Proper reply to a late scurrilous libel of 1731 which led to Hervey challenging Pulteney to a duel. Hervey's decade long clandestine affair with Stephen Fox would eventually contribute to his downfall. As first published the verse referred to Paris, but was changed to Sporus when republished a few months later.

The last time I wrote about the young man who was a Tunisian street vendor who set himself on fire on 17 December 2010, in protest of the confiscation of his wares and the harassment and humiliation that he reported was inflicted on him by a municipal official and her aides. The simple but deadly act set off a change of political leaderships throughout the Arab World and was later known collectively as the Arab Spring. This is the butterfly effect.

Now they classified the Roy boy's effort as the butterfly on the wheel. How silly of them! Kill the chicken and frighten the monkeys. The self-pawned joke is that the monkey is never harmed in any case but scared off till another day of reckoning. In all cases, the butterfly is weak and fragile. If one crashes the butterfly on the wheel and most of the time, nothing would really happen. But, sometimes with the right conditions, this butterfly may turn in a butterfly effect. The old fucken knew about its dreadful effects, but not the younger fuckens. The old fucken had meticulously stamped out all possible trouble-makers, hence, the apparent peace before the huge storm. Given more time, one true butterfly would appear. Till then, SYB - Suffer You Bastards.

Grief and doom aside. There is a lesson to be learnt. In business too, never look down on any tiny business proposals, they might be the one that brings you absolute happiness. Because the nature of these tiny proposals are humble in the beginning, the start-up cost is going to be very low. They are therefore durable and hardy to environmental factors. Their survival rates are deemed the best.

Although I have taken a big hit on a stalling of a major project, I was given another tiny window to play a similar game. I am satisfied that my losses in time would be returned to me, though it might take a longer time.

Because my investments are very low and do not involved the banks. I am not too stressed by the current losses. I was too ambitious. I have to re-examined my priority.

Tengri is very fair. Play a playful game, my ass would be wiped. Play it fair and small. Slow rewards but safe passages. Maybe it's time for me to consider loving myself more.

Friday, 20 June 2014

b.Every a Big Project falls

The last part is here:   Business Jinx

Sigh ... Sad, sad, sad ... One of my big projects is postponed indefinitely.

There is a damage hit and I am now licking my wound.

Keeping it in view lor. Painful.

Hope I can return to it fastest.

As Tengri is great, he will always open a small window for me. Love my Tengri deep deep.

The other small project of white rental property is also off. Can't trust the fuckers.

In white land, it is important to note than rental properties are not great assets. Only in Asian markets can one be more certain. The reason being that the white properties are normally made of paper. It is useless running them. It costs too much to maintain and pay taxes.

Working off the land is still the safest path for me. Love myself. In land, even if you don't have power or water, you can still depend on Tengri to supply the plants with water and sunshine. You only need to bring in the seeds and fertilizers. It is that simple. Without roads, no problem. The seeds are light. No power, no problem. Stay warm in town. The plants don't need warmth all the time. When it is time to grow, the plants will grow. You just need to own the land. Even planting trees is super lucrative. Ask any Malaysians, they will tell you. You can harvest teak in 7-8 years.

I am now in battle mode. In battle mode, I am not allowed to go into depression.

Even if I were to fall now, I don't really care. I build my own reality. A friend just told me that I am beginning to look like a scavenger. I asked really? She said in no uncertained term that I am looking more and more like her father. Every 5 years, changes to a smaller car and smaller house. Fuck her! She is so sharp.

Tuesday, 17 June 2014

b.Passion Business II - The Connection Needed

The last part is here:   Passion Business II - How to Grow Ginseng

The best part is that I am buying a cute little land to plant this marvel this winter. Nice price and I am going to ace it.

The next best part is that I have rented a little 10-acre nursery for $200 per year for the next 10 years. Imagine the fun I am going to get. On top of that, they throw in an alpaca barn farm for free. They simply wants me to rent their premises and occupy it and pay their taxes.

I am now securing the seedlings from the white land to start the game. Hopefully the returns of $20-30k per acre comes true.

On top of that, they wanted me to try to help them build a fresh water fish farm. Nice farmers, nice lands, nice projects.

The last best thing I heard for the day is that many lands are now selling for a song as their parents all died on them (i.e., 1920s-1930s). Over the next 15 years, many more baby boomers have to die and transfer their land holdings to their city-bound kids and most kids can't pay their huge estate taxes and they have no choice but to sell their lands on the cheap to pay for their taxes.

This is how good the news over the day.

Today every white is having a dying parent with huge land reserves and they all smiled at me hoping to find me renting their lands on the cheap. But, I am a cheapo. I don't rent lands even if it is near free. I don't want to help them on their property taxes. I want them to sell on the cheap.

I am know to pay only on average 25% of the market value and nothing more. That's how bastardy I am. I am also succeeding. A devil is not a fun guy to play with.

Monday, 16 June 2014

g.Sexual Harassment

The last part is here:   Skirt-Chasing - Bluff the Gal a Dream

Fuck her ... I am of medieval age lah. How on earth does she think she can sexually harass me? (shake head)

I am currently in the thick of building my business. I have no time for such rubbish. I may be alone, but I am no mood for sex. I have far better choice.

She chatted me up. Asked for my phone number. We were casually talking over the counter with ten good feet between us. After less than 5 minutes, she threw away the counter and came straight for me. Dai lo ... too fast liao. She would laugh happily and tried to put her hand on my shoulder. I withdrew straight away and ended the conversation after 15 minutes.

I am no easy meat. She told me she was 22 yo and in need of help.

Sometimes being a good Samaritan and friendly neighbour is unhealthy. I better stick to my igloo and my pet bear.

Sunday, 15 June 2014

g.Show - 非诚勿扰 (2014)

The last part is here:   Show - 非诚勿扰

The show is here:   非诚勿扰 (2014)

Hehehe ... To fight depression, I have been watching day and night the show.

The show is so interesting. You would find lots of assholes and nasty characters. You will see it in both guys and gals alike. There are goodies and there are nasties. I guess in life it is also the same.

I am going to embark on the largest project in my life and I have chosen too my partner-in-crime for the implementation.

I don't know what the future holds. But I am willing to give it a go.

Life is very short. I have already walk more than half way through. I don't want to keep guessing. I am going to go with the heart. Hopefully one day I can proudly proclaim that there is goodness left in the human race.

I just want to listen to a song:   新鸳鸯蝴蝶梦
昨日像那东流水离我远去不可留今日乱我心多烦忧 抽刀断水水更流举杯消愁愁更愁明朝清风四飘流 由来只闻新人笑有谁听到旧人哭爱情两个字好辛苦 是要问一个明白还是要装作糊涂知多知少难知足 看似个鸳鸯蝴蝶不应该的年代可是谁又能摆脱人世间的悲哀 花花世界鸳鸯蝴蝶在人间已是癫何苦要上青天不如温柔同眠

I still like 笑傲江湖 (粤版)
愿那风是我愿那月是我柳底飞花是我对酒当歌做个洒脱的我不理世界说我是何只要 ... 重做个真的我回问那假的我半生为何眠后醉醉后眠眠后再醉又眠岂求什么重做个真 ... 江湖笑.

How many of us can truly do the ultimate 笑傲江湖 ... ?

Let's enjoy the show ...

Friday, 13 June 2014

p.Things Take Time

The last part is here:   The Path To Be

Always I try to rush, rush, rush. Not every time I could end well. Always things that I have rushed ended not so ideal. The results are nonetheless so-so.

The best results are always things that I don't even noticed and concerned with. Maybe because these assets were fully paid up and there was no need for concern. In the end, these assets became so pleasingly lucrative.

Now I am very stuck. I have great plans to acquire a big piece this winter (I love winter, winter is a very sad time for everyone) and I do have the dollars for it. But, hmmm ... There are so many options. Some are great for long term, but short on short term. Some are great for short term, but weak in longer term. 取舍, what a lovely combination.

As an investor, 取舍 is so important that even if you 取, it doesn't mean you will win. OR 舍, it doesn't mean you will lost them all. One has to conserve bullets, all the time, but yet at the same time, must find a way to regenerate these bullets. So very interesting.

My current problem is I simply don't have enough shorts to generate my longs. But, if I concentrate on my shorts, I would miss out on the longs. 16 years from 2009 is a very short time. A 5-year time has already gone. I may not have enough cash to close all my deals.

Interesting time ahead ...

I hope one day I have gained enough to start my support group to those that have helped me along my path. They may not know that they have helped me. But I can't feign my knowledge. This is down-right disgusting. I pray for their good health and happiness.

These people are not stupid. They lay no blame on the fuckens. They only accept what fate has delivered. I respect their guts to face life in its starkness. In truth, how many people are so honest like them. I didn't help enough this last round. I will try to do better the next round.

Wednesday, 11 June 2014

a.The Ah Ma Who Sold Stuff on the Streets of Orchard Road has Passed Away

The last part was here:   Article - Unwilling to Burden Family

Dear The Real Singapore,
I refer to your earlier article: "DEAR TRS, PLEASE HELP THE OLD LADY SELLING THINGS OUTSIDE CINELEISURE!"

This old ah ma is always sell things outside cineleisure at orchard road and one of your readers shared the article saying that she looks very ill and is coughing very badly on the streets despite trying her best to earn a living at such a old age. She has been selling stuff on the streets outside Cineleisure for many years already despite being 80+ years old.
The reader also complained that why isn't the government helping her. He asked her stop selling if she is not feeling well but she told him that she can't cause she need to pay for her medical bills. She is still selling there now and vomitting beside her at the same time.
I went there yesterday wanting to find the old aunty and pass her some money but I couldn't find her there anymore. Today I saw a update from Project Awareness - Share & Walk with me that broke my heart: A very shocking news, maybe in this morning for those who read our post at Project Awareness. The old lady selling her stuffs outside Orchard Cineleisure passed away today at 00.06am. It is sad to break this news to all our supporters and friends, but let give her a LIKE for all the memories she given to us at Orchard Cineleisure.

Message from Tere Han: Zheng po po passed away today at SGH. Hope she really gave you guys memories of Aunty Cineleisure. Guess she is now in the good hands of (God/Lao Tian Ye/Allah) whatever. Hope she rest in peace and move on to afterlife to find peace and hope.

Read about this old lady story: http://tinyurl.com/k98madx
May this lovely old lady rest in peace and thank you the chatting sessions that I used to had with you. 一路好走!
Remember to share Project Helping Hand and walk with us in Project Awareness. A little thought can mean so much!
Elson Soh 苏奕铨
Founder of Project Awareness - Share & Walk with me
(Updated on 11 June 2014 00.06)


Another super sad day for me after reading this news. I wish I could only help. 屌你老母臭化閪 ...扑你个街 ... I will do my utmost to let the poor find a better place. These 冇屎忽畜类 really 衰到贴地. 偷呃拐骗, 生安白造 ... everything also can do.  冚家剷吾係粗口, 扑你個臭街都唔係, 屌鳩撚柒閪先係. Amazing I am able to witness such low-lives. Not only back there, but in white land as well. I guess low-lives are everywhere. It is good to avoid them totally.

a.The "Oracle of Omaha" of the East has Spoken

The last part is here:    Property Investment - White Knights

'China's Warren Buffett' Selling Off His China Assets 
On the 8th of Jun 2014, Pacific Century Premium Developments and PCCW announced they had signed an agreement to sell Pacific Century Place.  The disposal of a landmark project in the center of Beijing—two office buildings, two blocks of serviced apartments, and a mall—confirmed that Li Ka-shing undefined and son Richard have turned bearish on Chinese real estate. Li, reputed to be the richest man in Asia, and his family have been on a selling spree in Mainland China since last August. During that time, “Superman,” his nickname because of an almost-infallible sense of market timing, has unloaded Guangzhou’s Metropolitan Plaza, Shanghai’s Oriental Financial Center, and Nanjing’s International Financial Center. With Richard’s disposal of Beijing’s Pacific Century Place, the Li family has reportedly sold about $2.9 billion of Chinese property in less than a year.
Li did not earn his nickname for nothing.  He started as a salesman of plastic flowers and bought big in the wake of riots in Hong Kong at the time of China’s Cultural Revolution, snapping up bargains.  He was also an early investor in Mainland China, jumping in before it became fashionable.  That proved to be smart.  He has, wrote one observer, “a record of being able to predict the mainland property market.” 
Li’s maneuvers are now considered a leading indicator.  So what is the significance of his recent sales?  He told the respected Caixin website, just before the Pacific Century Place announcement, that the disposals of properties in China were “sell-high-buy-low” moves.  As he noted, “The talk of our disinvestment is a big joke.”
Yet Li, No. 20 on last month’s Forbes rich list with a fortune of $31.0 billion, is selling in China and not buying.  And it looks like he is leaving not a moment too soon.  Dongfang Daily, a Chinese paper, quotes an unnamed “industry insider” who tells us Superman “will always sell his assets two to three years ahead of crises.
This time, the crisis will surely hit sooner than that.  Why?  Values are already tumbling.  The sales price for Pacific Century Place, for instance, is thought to be 30% lower than last year’s asking price.
Now that Li is moving out of major China developments, others will probably take the hint.  “Why would you buy anything when Li Ka-shing is selling?” asks Euromoney.  The magazine posed the question in connection with Li dumping assets in his home base, Hong Kong.  There, he has gone on another “de-risking” binge, with among other things, an initial public offering of Power Assets Holdings , a sale of a 24.95% interest in retailer AS Watson, and a disposal of a 60% stake in Terminal 8 West in the Kwai Tsing container port, all this year.  Li also tried to offload supermarket chain ParknShop last year, but the effort failed. 
In March, Li made it clear that just about everything was for sale in the next 12 months.  “We will not rule out the option,” he said.
It would be nice to think that Li, an octogenarian, is dumping assets at the end of an illustrious career so that his China sales say more about him than the state of the Mainland property market.  Yet Li is busy redeploying assets to Europe, indicating he is not exactly contemplating retirement.  And in some ways the Hong Kong disposals are an added indication of his bearishness because the city’s economy is so tightly bound to the rest of China these days.
That’s why Simon Black, an investor and entrepreneur, looks correct.  “Li wants out of China,” he writes“All of it.”  Superman’s sudden move out of Chinese property has been termed an “evacuation,” and it looks like he hopes to get out of the rest of his Chinese investments too.  Li, for instance, has been progressively selling his stock in ChangYuan Group, a Shanghai-listed electronics manufacturer based in Guangdong province.  When viewed in connection with his Mainland China and Hong Kong disposals, this move looks part of a relentless trend. 
The Chinese themselves see special significance in Superman’s sales.  Wang Shi, chairman of China Vanke , China’s largest home builder, says the sell-off of “the smart Mr. Li” is a warning.  Critic Luo Zhiyuan said the sales imply “the coming of a crisis.”
We should probably take our cue from the man called “the Warren Buffett of China.”  After all, the Chinese Buffett is unloading his China assets.  

Mr Li Ka Shing is a clever man. He single-handedly built his empire from the 60s-70s. He was early in his game. Now he has huge number of financial analysts to read for him, he is now more invincible than ever.

Typically Asia will feel the crisis 2 to 3 years after the USA or Europe felt it. The reason is simple:   There is always enough juice to fund the Asian markets for a while from USA or Europe's sales proceeds, before the Asian markets ran out of juice too. From the depth of the USA crisis in Mar 2009 to now 2014, the Asian crisis is now long overdue in outing.

Soon this Asian tsunami is going to whip the asses of all fuckens. As I have always said, this is a rather fair world. You fucked others before, you will get fucked in return. That's what life is all about.

Buy assets only during the bitterest winters. In your terms, buy during the ghost months. Buy during the deadest part of the year - July-September. Buy cash please.

I know life is bitter if we choose to label it so. But, there is always a choice. A choice that we can call it our own. I have made that choice my own.

Depression or self-hate, I don't care, I build my own reality. May Tengri bless those who have been honest and kind. In times of darkness, may there be light and warmth in the cold tunnel ... In time, may we all understand the meaning of living a full life.

Tuesday, 10 June 2014

p.If You Are Down and Out ...

The last part is here:   Show - Steve Jobs

If you are down and out ...

What a question !?! This is killer.

There is clearly a difference between brute stubbornness and misguided faith. Not everything you can stubbornly grind at the stone and it will succeed in the end. There are things out there that are vicious and of violent nature. They are fuckens at their very best.

If you encounter this group of people, be nice, just quit. Don't burn your life force over a lost cause. You can never win. Even if you can win, there would still be another time, another engagement that these fuckens can fuck you.

Am I a defeatist? Surely not. I just choose my own battle ground and I choose my own battle formations.

If you had studied carefully, fuckens came from very established backgrounds, if you don't have these advantages. Please don't fight them. You are not strong enough.

Then what should you do if you can't leave the battle ground? There is no such thing. You can always choose to leave. It is always your choice.

In the event if you truly can't leave, that fight a very slow attrition war. Be stealthy. Be nibble. Be invisible. The success is in the invisibility.

This is a very old worn record ... It is timeless. It is perfect. This battle is never won by loudness.

Monday, 9 June 2014

p.The Path Least Trodden is Not a Straight Path

The last part is here:   Philosophy of Business

This is always a (legendary) Harvard Business School's first lesson:
The Art Of Possibility
By Benjamin & Rosamund Stone Zander, (2000) Harvard Business School Press I. It's All Invented: "A shoe factory sends two marketing scouts to a region of Africa to study the prospects for expanding business. One sends back a telegram saying, “Situation hopeless, stop, no one wears shoes.” The other writes back triumphantly, “Glorious business opportunity, stop, they have no shoes!”
This is what we all have the ability to do. Life experiences come to us in sequence: First, our senses bring us selective information about what is out there; Second, the brain constructs its own simulation of the sensations; and only then, Third, do we have our first conscious experiences of our milieu… thinking outside of the lines, or boxes that we traditionally live in. Here's how to practice that step. Simply ask yourself this question; “What assumptions am I making that I'm not aware I'm making, that gives me what I see?” When you have the answer to that question then ask yourself; “What might I now invent, that I haven't invented, that would give me other choices?”

This is a very difficult decision:   I am into this new business and found that no one is doing it, therefore I have a chance. OR is it that every other person has tried this business before and failed, that is the reason why I am all alone still, stupidly trying out a joke, that is doomed to fail.

Same, same for the path least trodden. I might have walked the path least trodden, it doesn't mean that it is a straight-forward path. Right now, I have to start walking sideways before I can walk straight again later. If I have youth on my side, I would have no problem, but I don't.

The commencement of another project has begun. Let's see how far this project will take me.

p.Personal Depression

The last part is here:   Article - Unwilling to Burden Family

To live alone is very depressing. One has to have steel nerves and empty heart. Emotionally, one must be empty. No urge to fight the sadness and enjoy everyday's little things. Now is still summer. Things are still lively. Once the winter sets in, the emotional disposition would be more dangerously tested.

BIrds are chirpy everywhere. I should feel very good, but I don't feel good at all.

There must be a place or thing I must do inorder to break out of this emotional depression. This is a true test of a guy who has nothing.

Since I have nothing to begin with, then why should I fear losing it all. I had none to begin with. Maybe I do have something. What is this something then ...

Maybe I yearn human touch. LOL. Never mind, tomorrow is again a new day.

Sunday, 8 June 2014

b.Property Investment - White Knights

The last part is here:   Megatrend - Depression Pushing Through

Finally I am back to my cave. So nice to be home, sweet home. The plane had only 150 passengers, of whom only 5 are yellowskins, i.e., 3%. This is an important percentage. It meant that the yellowskins are not here to push up the property prices. The whites are stuck in their own problems.

Just when I thought I got killer investments in Malaysia, the white agents gave me offers I cannot refuse.

The depression continued to bite. ECB moves deposit rate into negative territory for the first time, as of 05 June 2014, hoping to avoid a Japan's lost decade. This is how serious the case of massive quantitative easing is.

The average return-on-investment in Malaysia is 8 years. I thought I was brillant. How wrong!

The white properties are giving me a return-on-investment of 2 years. This is really a joke. I can't believe my own eyes. Now I have to count my chickens and eggs and hatching them. Shit! I got so little money.

My partner-in-crime always remind me that in every investment, we must always consider its return-on-investment and that return-on-investment must also be immediate. He is wise beyond his years.

Monday, 2 June 2014

b.A Home an Investment?

The last part is here:   A Property is a Property is a Property

Years ago, I made one of the most stupid mistakes on earth:   I listened to the garmen.

The garmen told me that a property, not only can be a home, it could also be an investment. So I went to buy a house and I lived in it. A few years later, my house has appreciated in value and I also got a promotion. The banker told me that I am worth it.

I bought a bigger house and I stayed in it. I not only got a bigger house, my net worth has gone up by a quantum. This net worth could never be saved by me throughout my lifetime. My instalments were paid for by my salary. I was brilliant.

Another few years later, I again got a promotion. My banker once again told me the same fairy tale that I am worth it. I again bought a bigger house and I stayed in it. I not only got a bigger house, my net worth has gone up by a quantum. This net worth could never be saved by me throughout my lifetime. My instalments were paid for by my salary. I was brilliant.

Suddenly, I was retrenched. The banker told me that I am not as worthy as before. He has no choice but to fire-sale my beautiful house. Over-night I was left with nothing. I was stupid.

A home unfortunately is not for gamble. It is never an investment. It is the base camp and solace of the heart.

In the home, one can purchase the most expensive fittings and fix the most beautiful bathroom. It is never too expensive. But, one can't do the same for investment properties.

How I wish I learn earlier this expensive lesson.

Lotus suddenly called me today and announced that my home is now ready for occupation. I swallowed my saliva hard. Could I manage more than one home?

g.微电影 - 错位 [BD] [2014]

The short movie is here:   错位 [BD] [2014]

爱情是一个让人走不出的怪圈:真心爱你的人你不爱他,你爱的人心里又爱着另一个人。呼唤的和被呼唤的总是...

爱 and 被爱 ...

What a difficult choice ...

In my life, I have decided that I better be to be loved. The other way round, I always ended up bad.

Because of this, I guessed I do have an inferiority complex. Maybe my defence system is always on the alert ...

Let's enjoy the movie ...

Sunday, 1 June 2014

b.Mega-Trend - Death of a Fucken Island

The last part is here:   Mega-trend - 16 Year Depression

The strong economic growth of the 1970s ended abruptly at the start of the 1990s. In the late 1980s, abnormalities within the Japanese economic system had fueled a speculative asset price bubble of massive scale by Japanese companies, banks and securities companies ... The combination of exceptionally high land values and low interest rates briefly resulted in heightened liquidity in the market. It led to massive borrowing and heavy investment mostly in domestic and foreign stocks and securities ... A debt crisis followed and the Japanese banks and insurances were now loaded with bad debts. The financial institutions were bailed out through capital infusions from the government, loans from the central bank and the ability to postpone the recognition of losses, ultimately turning them into zombie banks ... these banks kept injecting new funds into unprofitable "zombie firms" to keep them afloat, arguing that they were too big to fail ... However, most of these companies were too debt-ridden to do much more than survive on bail-out funds... Many Japanese firms were burdened with heavy debts, and it became very difficult to obtain credit. Many borrowers turned to sarakin (loan sharks) for loans... The 1990s therefore was the "lost decade" when the economy contracted or grew at a paltry rate... Unemployment rates were high, but not at a crisis level... With the traditional Japanese emphasis on frugality and saving, an impact on an average Japanese family was quite limited, whose standard of living did not deteriorate significantly from what it was in the 1980s... Despite the economic recovery in the 2000s, conspicuous consumption of the 1980s such as lavish spending on whiskey and cars did not return for the most part... Many Japanese companies replaced a large part of their workforce with temporary workers, who had little job security and fewer benefits... As of 2009, these non-traditional employees made up more than a third of the labor force. As of now, the nation's economy has not fully recovered from the 1991 crash...

At its height (1990), Tokyo's retail store space was going for $10,000 per square foot (I have not confirmed this number), this is way too high for any retailer to turn a profit. In the end, the economy tanked and never recover since for the next 20 years and now going towards the next 10 more years (please enlarge and read the graph). I believe another 10 more lost years is not impossible for Japan.

My partner-in-crime always reminded me that property prices cannot be infinite. At best, it can rise is at the rate of the GDP. Otherwise, the risk of having lost decades is real.

When one's pension fund disappeared due to speculative binge in the States in the not-so-distant past, 2009? $360b? One is hard pressed to replace the pension funds lost. The suggested way was to inflate his way through excessive increase in property prices. With the increased property prices, we do have a problem, we need great consumption to support the increase in rentals. Feverish importation of bodies into the fucken little island was the final result.

With priceless pigeon holes going at $1.2m per pop, I wonder how long more before this joke starts to get going. With lost decades in place, I am sure we will have lots of fun.

I may and do sound vindictive. After all, I am but a finest product of that fucken little island too. Hopefully, a phoenix may rise from its ashes. But, I am not too optimistic.

p.A Property is a Property is a Property

The last part is here:   Return on Capital

Today I have a very puzzling request:   Why must we buy so old and therefore cheap properties and so far away as well? Why can't we be like everyone else? Buy a normal, nice and comfortable property and get a normal passive income to boot?

From the depth of it, this is a really nasty question. It is very, very, very difficult to answer. Even if there is an answer, it doesn't imply that it is a perfect answer. Even if it is a perfect answer, due to seasons of the market, one's decision may seemed right at the time of decision, it would go dead wrong if the market is somehow misread.

But, I am an old fool. I love challenging questions.

Lots of guys love to time the market. They time it left and they time it right. Most of the time, if they have the staying power, they are proud and successful. But, if they don't have any staying power, they are the most foolish. But, real market is not a game for fools, the cash outlay is huge and the punishment deadly.

Take a hypothetical case:
  • A normal property is costed at $300k and rentable at $1,200 per month, giving a Return-On-Investment (ROI) of 21 years or the classic 5% return. This property is almost brand-new (5-10 years) and located at some nice suburbs. Shopping is not too convenient but good enough. It is not near any famous eateries. Commuting to city centre is about 15-20 minutes. It is normally to collect about 10-20% of down-payment ($30,000-$60,000) to secure a bank loan of 80-90% stretched over 25-35 years. Over the tenure, one would need to pay (not including down-payment) about a total of $1,800 per month x 30 years x 12 months = $648,000 or 2.2 times the initial purchase price. Assuming the property is rented out, there would still be a short-fall of ($1,800 - $1,200) x 30 years x 12 months = $216,000 or 0.72 times the initial purchase price.
  •  
  • On the other hand, a nasty property is costed at $35k and rentable at $350 per month, giving a Return-On-Investment (ROI) of 8 years or 12% return. This property is very old (18-25 years) but located very near to city centre. Shopping is very convenient. It is near famous eateries. Commuting to city centre is about 5-10 minutes. It is normal to pay cash for the property. Based on the initial quantum of down-payment of the other property ($30,000-$60,000), one can collect about 1-2 of these nasty properties (2 nasties = 1 nice-ty in land size). Over the same tenure of 30 years, one would have collected a total of $350 per month x 30 years x 12 months = $126,000 or 3.6 times the initial purchase price. If buying only one initially ($35,000), then one would have collected 1 + 3.6 = 4.6 properties in total. If one were to buy 2 nasties initially, one would have collected 4.6 x 2 = 9.2 properties. Not forgetting, it also have a cascading effect, i.e., every 8 years, each nasty can give birth to another nasty collecting even more rental. Mind you, I don't even need to pay the extra $600 per month for the next 30 years. If that is included, I would have collected another 6.2 nasties on top of the 4.6-9.2. Given that 2 nasties = 1 nice-ty in land size, the potential is way too great to ignore. Also, if the plot ratio is increased due to congestion, these nasties are great cash pockets.
The above showed a very simplistic view of things. In short, the nasty investment is a superior choice.

Overall, I didn't take into account of possible downturn, or upturn, inflation of property prices and so on, just simply too many factors to think about. My primal instinct is that investing in nasties is the way to go. For a fraction of the price of a fresh property, I am able to buy something very near to town. The return would be way superior. I have a chance to own many more properties.

Lots of guys don't understand that the developers exact very heavy prices on building new properties for sale. To sweeten the deals, they have no choice but to have short skirts doing their sales. Whenever this happens, you know you are paying a premium for the things you are buying. These short skirts are not cheap to employ.

The stigma in investing in nasties is that it is not pretty. It is bad in reputation as compared to nice houses. Even living in one caused grief to woman folks. Most people like to classify these nasty dwellers as scum of the earth.

Not forgetting these niceties are nice only in boom times. In recessions, these niceties would have turned nasties too. I might then engage these niceties as if they are nasties. 

Only if my woman folks understand this simple investment principles, they would be richly rewarded 10 years down the road.

It is these troubled so-called "stigma" that is giving me so much joy. I do pray for my woman folks to understand and tolerate me for just 10 years. In the event I am rewarded with expanding business volumes in future, this waiting could be shortened greatly.