p.The Butterfly Effect

The last part is here:   Why I Am Not A Politician?

The Butterfly Effect

The idea that one butterfly could eventually have a far-reaching ripple effect on subsequent historic events first appears in "A Sound of Thunder", a 1952 short story by Ray Bradbury about time travel.

In 1961, Edward Lorenz was using a numerical computer model to rerun a weather prediction, when, as a shortcut on a number in the sequence, he entered the decimal 0.506 instead of entering the full 0.506127. The result was a completely different weather scenario. In 1963 Lorenz published a theoretical study of this effect in a well-known paper called Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow. (As noted in the paper, the calculations were performed on a Royal McBee LPD-30 computing machine.) Elsewhere he said that "One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a seagull's wings could change the course of weather forever." Following suggestions from colleagues, in later speeches and papers Lorenz used the more poetic butterfly. According to Lorenz, when he failed to provide a title for a talk he was to present at the 139th meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in 1972, Philip Merilees concocted Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas? as a title. Although a butterfly flapping its wings has remained constant in the expression of this concept, the location of the butterfly, the consequences, and the location of the consequences have varied widely.

The phrase refers to the idea that a butterfly's wings might create tiny changes in the atmosphere that may ultimately alter the path of a tornado or delay, accelerate or even prevent the occurrence of a tornado in another location. Note that the butterfly does not power or directly create the tornado. The flap of the wings is a part of the initial conditions; one set of conditions leads to a tornado while the other set of conditions doesn't. The flapping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of the system, which causes a chain of events leading to large-scale alterations of events (compare: domino effect). Had the butterfly not flapped its wings, the trajectory of the system might have been vastly different - it's also possible that the set of conditions without the butterfly flapping its wings is the set that leads to a tornado. 

Butterfly Upon A Wheel

"Who breaks a butterfly upon a wheel?" is a quotation – sometimes misquoted with "on" in place of "upon" – from Alexander Pope's "Epistle to Dr Arbuthnot" of January 1735. It alludes to "breaking on the wheel", a form of torture in which victims had their long bones broken by an iron bar while tied to a Catherine wheel.

The line "Who breaks a butterfly upon a wheel?" forms line 308 of the "Epistle to Dr Arbuthnot" in which Alexander Pope responded to his physician's word of caution about making satirical attacks on powerful people by sending him a selection of such attacks. It appears in a section on the courtier John Hervey, 2nd Baron Hervey, who was close to Queen Caroline and was one of Pope's bitterest enemies.

The section opens as follows:

Let Sporus tremble –"What? that thing of silk,   
Sporus, that mere white curd of ass's milk? 
Satire or sense, alas! can Sporus feel? 
Who breaks a butterfly upon a wheel?" 
Yet let me flap this bug with gilded wings, 
This painted child of dirt that stinks and stings; 
Whose buzz the witty and the fair annoys, 
Yet wit ne'er tastes, and beauty ne'er enjoys, 

Sporus, a homosexual favoured by Emperor Nero, was, according to Suetonius, castrated by the emperor, and subsequently married. Pope here refers to accusations made in Pulteney's Proper reply to a late scurrilous libel of 1731 which led to Hervey challenging Pulteney to a duel. Hervey's decade long clandestine affair with Stephen Fox would eventually contribute to his downfall. As first published the verse referred to Paris, but was changed to Sporus when republished a few months later.

The last time I wrote about the young man who was a Tunisian street vendor who set himself on fire on 17 December 2010, in protest of the confiscation of his wares and the harassment and humiliation that he reported was inflicted on him by a municipal official and her aides. The simple but deadly act set off a change of political leaderships throughout the Arab World and was later known collectively as the Arab Spring. This is the butterfly effect.

Now they classified the Roy boy's effort as the butterfly on the wheel. How silly of them! Kill the chicken and frighten the monkeys. The self-pawned joke is that the monkey is never harmed in any case but scared off till another day of reckoning. In all cases, the butterfly is weak and fragile. If one crashes the butterfly on the wheel and most of the time, nothing would really happen. But, sometimes with the right conditions, this butterfly may turn in a butterfly effect. The old fucken knew about its dreadful effects, but not the younger fuckens. The old fucken had meticulously stamped out all possible trouble-makers, hence, the apparent peace before the huge storm. Given more time, one true butterfly would appear. Till then, SYB - Suffer You Bastards.

Grief and doom aside. There is a lesson to be learnt. In business too, never look down on any tiny business proposals, they might be the one that brings you absolute happiness. Because the nature of these tiny proposals are humble in the beginning, the start-up cost is going to be very low. They are therefore durable and hardy to environmental factors. Their survival rates are deemed the best.

Although I have taken a big hit on a stalling of a major project, I was given another tiny window to play a similar game. I am satisfied that my losses in time would be returned to me, though it might take a longer time.

Because my investments are very low and do not involved the banks. I am not too stressed by the current losses. I was too ambitious. I have to re-examined my priority.

Tengri is very fair. Play a playful game, my ass would be wiped. Play it fair and small. Slow rewards but safe passages. Maybe it's time for me to consider loving myself more.