b.Grotesque Printing of Fiat Money

The last part is here:   Exploration - Fiat Currency

I know this is a much discussed topic and everyone has their own angle. I am now thinking hard about mine.

When a government-of-the-day operates, she has to pay her loyal subjects and servants month after month increasingly. How to pay them? Well, the best way is to print cheap but pretty IOUs like fiat money. In return, how to make it legal? Well, by asking the citizenry that she needs to be paid taxes by way of accepting these fiat money too. This becomes the central theme to the employment of fiat money.

Well too, most governments-of-the-day run a deficit most of the time, unlike the white fuckens. Hence, the white fuckens' currency tends to be quite strong. But, unfortunately, the white fuckens love to gamble. It was too easy as there was no accountability. The white fuckens lost big time in 2009. The white fuckens then had no choice but to start filling the big hole. They do so by printing more fiat money and inflate all prices to try to reduce the impact of their big losses of $360bn. Indeed, the white fuckens have to a certain extent succeeded. But, the hardship imposed on the citizenry was horrendous. That is another bedtime story for another time.

This grotesque printing of fiat money has only one effect: inflation. In inflation, the prices are made very high, but yet the consumption is very low. The wages are stagnant and every citizen will restrict consumption, commonly known as stagflation.

In the usual boom-and-bust cycle, real estate prices will go up during boom and comes down during bust. But, this bizarre printing of fiat money masks this trend. property prices will seem to be only going up. How does one know then that it is indeed a good time to buy? The only sign left is not so much huge drop in price, but the presence of gap-downs, i.e., buyers are not willing to buy at the sellers' price nor the sellers willing to take the buyers' offer. Very often, this is characterized by extremely low transaction volumes.

With the inflated property prices, one should not be surprised that I now may have to turn my back on one of my most fundamental mantras: no loans.

I have no choice but to admit that with the new twist in the tale, one would never be able to save money fast enough to overcome inflation. So buying properties have to be supported initially by bank loans.

We have to go back now and shake hands with the evil powers. It is interesting as to how this game plan will play out.

When borrowing, do be careful in not over-stretching one's purchase power. It is good to buy a property at less than 10% one's true purchase power. Else, one would be over-stretching when hard times hit again.

At 10% true purchase power, the banks are more than willing to lend. Even in the hard time, these cheap-cheap properties may be sold if necessary to recover some purchasing powers.

The last thing I would like to suggest: Never refinance your properties no matter how tempting is the bank offer. Your properties have already crossed the bridge and enjoying the cake. Don't risk them again over bank loans.

Good Luck!

b.MegaTrend - 18 Signs of Global Economic Crisis

The last part is here:   Megatrend - Depression pushing through

18 Signs that the Global Economic Crisis is Accelerating as we Enter the Last Half of 2014 

A lot of people that I talk to these days want to know "when things are going to start happening". Well, there are certainly some perilous times on the horizon, but all you have to do is open up your eyes and look to see the global economic crisis unfolding. As you will see below, even central bankers are issuing frightening warnings about "dangerous new asset bubbles" and even the World Bank is declaring that "now is the time to prepare" for the next crisis. Most Americans tend to only care about what is happening in the United States, but the truth is that serious economic trouble is erupting in South America, all across Europe and in Asian powerhouses such as China and Japan. And the endless conflicts in the Middle East could erupt into a major regional war at just about any time. We live in a world that is becoming increasingly unstable, and people need to understand that the period of relative stability that we are enjoying right now is extremely vulnerable and will not last long. The following are 18 signs that the global economic crisis is accelerating as we enter the last half of 2014 ... 

#1 The Bank for International Settlements has issued a new report which warns that "dangerous new asset bubbles" are forming which could potentially lead to another major financial crisis. Do the central bankers know something that we don't, or are they just trying to place the blame on someone else for the giant mess that they have created?

#2 Argentina has missed a $539 million debt payment and is on the verge of its second major debt default in 13 years.

#3 Bulgaria is desperately trying to calm down a massive run on the banks that threatens of spiral out of control.

#4 Last month, household loans in the eurozone declined at the fastest rate ever recorded. Why are European banks holding on to their money so tightly right now?

#5 The number of unemployed jobseekers in France has just soared to another brand new record high.

#6 Economies all over Europe are either showing no growth or are shrinking. Just check out what a recent Forbes article had to say about the matter...
Italy’s economy shrank by 0.1% in the first three months of 2014, matching the average of the three previous quarters. After expanding 0.6% in Q2 2013, France recorded zero growth. Portugal shrank 0.7%, following positive numbers in the preceding nine months. While figures weren’t available for Greece and Ireland in Q1, neither country is showing progress. Greek GDP dropped 2.5% in the final three months of last year, and Ireland limped ahead at 0.2%.

#7 A few days ago it was reported that consumer prices in Japan are rising at the fastest pace in 32 years.

#8 Household expenditures in Japan are down 8 percent compared to one year ago.

#9 U.S. companies are drowning in massive amounts of debt, but the corporate debt bubble in China is so bad that the amount of corporate debt in China has actually now surpassed the amount of corporate debt in the United States.

#10 One Chinese auditor is warning that up to 80 billion dollars worth of loans in China are backed by falsified gold transactions. What will that do to the price of gold and the stability of Chinese financial markets as that mess unwinds?

#11 The unemployment rate in Greece is currently sitting at 26.7 percent and the youth unemployment rate is 56.8 percent.

#12 67.5 percent of the people that are unemployed in Greece have been unemployed for over a year.

#13 The unemployment rate in the eurozone as a whole is 11.8 percent - just a little bit shy of the all-time record of 12.0 percent.

#14 The European Central Bank is so desperate to get money moving through the system that it has actually introduced negative interest rates.

#15 The IMF is projecting that there is a 25 percent chance that the eurozone will slip into deflation by the end of next year.

#16 The World Bank is warning that "now is the time to prepare" for the next crisis.

#17 The economic conflict between the United States and Russia continues to deepen. This has caused Russia to make a series of moves away from the U.S. dollar and toward other major currencies. This will have serious ramifications for the global financial system as time rolls along.

#18 Of course the U.S. economy is struggling right now as well. It shrank at a 2.9 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2014, which was much worse than anyone had anticipated.

But if U.S. economic numbers look a bit better for the second quarter, that doesn't mean that we are out of the woods.

As I have stressed so many times, the long-term trends and the long-term balance sheet numbers are far, far more important than the short-term economic numbers.

For example, if you went to the mall today and spent a thousand dollars on candy and video games, your short-term "economic activity" would spike dramatically. But your long-term financial health would take a significant turn for the worse.

Well, when we are talking about the health of the U.S. economy or the entire global financial system we need to keep the same kinds of considerations in mind.

As for the United States, whether the level of our debt-fueled short-term economic activity goes up a little bit or down a little bit is not what is truly important.

Rather, the fact that we are nearly 60 trillion dollars in debt as a society is what really matters.

The same thing applies for the globe as a whole. Right now, the citizens of the planet are more than 223 trillion dollars in debt, and "too big to fail" banks around the world have at least 700 trillion dollars of exposure to derivatives.

So it doesn't really matter too much whether the short-term economic numbers go up a little bit or down a little bit right now. The whole system is an inherently flawed Ponzi scheme that will inevitably collapse under its own weight.

Let us hope that this period of relative stability lasts for a while longer. It is a good thing to have time to prepare. But you would have to be absolutely insane to think that the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world is never going to burst.

My Comments:

It is important to note that no countries in the world will allow such a huge bubble to burst. So they will work in concert to try to correct this bubble. That being said, this bubble unfortunately is too big to release. Therefore, even a slight mis-management of this bubble will cause new whipsaws throughout the market.

A crash is absolutely impossible as everyone is talking about it. When every one is talking about it, it will never happen.

What will actually happen is that there would be a long long long long long long adjustment to market, i.e., the property prices will remain stagnant and slightly downward trending. This is a 16-year long depressive cycle.

Property owners will refuse to lower their prices but yet always take from the buyer's bids. This is commonly known as gap-down. Well, enjoy all your gap-downs. I am enjoying mine. I hope you do too. If you don't understand how to handle a gap-down, read it from the net.

Buy at least one property per year for the next 16 years. Enjoy the cycle as it would not repeat for another 60-80 years.

How to enjoy? Well ... after buying these properties rent them out as the rental yields are at least 15% and above. You will get your property freehold within 6-8 years. The excesses reinvest them into even more properties. This property cycle is once in a life-time for the current us.

If you must take profit, well, use the rental income to buy your next car or holidays. Never invest your blood monies in luxuries. You must get these luxuries from the rental yields. A bit more troublesome but important difference.

There are many assholes in town. Avoid them totally. Build your happiness in people you can trust. I have just avoided two big ones.

b.Article - Billionaire Tells Americans to Prepare For 'Financial Ruin'

The last part is here:   Megatrend - 16 Year Depression

Billionaire Tells Americans to Prepare For 'Financial Ruin'
Friday, 04 Jul 2014 11:07 PM
By Newsmax Wires

The United States could soon become a large-scale Spain or Greece, teetering on the edge of financial ruin.

That’s according to Donald Trump, who painted a very ugly picture of where this country is headed. Trump made the comments during a recent appearance on Fox News’ “On the Record with Greta Van Susteren.”

According to Trump, the United States is no longer a rich country. “When you’re not rich, you have to go out and borrow money. We’re borrowing from the Chinese and others. We’re up to $16 trillion in debt.”

He goes on to point out that the downgrade of U.S. debt is inevitable.

“We are going up to $16 trillion [in debt] very soon, and it’s going to be a lot higher than that before he gets finished. When you have [debt] in the $21-$22 trillion, you are talking about a downgrade no matter how you cut it.”

Ballooning debt and a credit downgrade aren’t Trump’s only worries for this country. He says that the official unemployment rate of 8.2 percent “isn’t a real number” and that the real figure is closer to 15 percent to 16 percent. He even mentioned that some believe the unemployment rate to be as high as 21 percent.

“Right now, frankly, the country isn’t doing well,” Trump added, “Recession may be a nice word.”

While 15 percent to 16 percent unemployment, a looming credit downgrade, and ballooning debt are a bleak outlook for the United States, they are hardly as alarming as the scenario laid out by another economist.

Without earning celebrity status or having his own television show, Robert Wiedemer did something else that grabbed headlines across the country: He accurately predicted the economic collapse that almost sank the United States.

In 2006, Wiedemer and a team of economists foresaw the coming collapse of the U.S. housing market, equity markets, private debt, and consumer spending, and published their findings in the book America’s Bubble Economy.

Editor’s Note: See the controversial video where Wiedemer makes his claims.

But Wiedemer’s outlook for the U.S. economy today makes Trump’s observations seem almost optimistic.

Where Trump sees ballooning debt and a credit downgrade, Wiedemer sees much more widespread economic destruction.

In a recent interview for his newest book Aftershock, Wiedemer says, “The data is clear, 50% unemployment, a 90% stock market drop, and 100% annual inflation . . . starting in 2012.” 

When the host questioned such wild claims, Wiedemer unapologetically displayed shocking charts backing up his allegations, and then ended his argument with, “You see, the medicine will become the poison.” 

The interview has become a wake-up call for those unprepared (or unwilling) to acknowledge an ugly truth: The country’s financial “rescue” devised in Washington has failed miserably.

Editor’s Note: See the 5 signs the stock market will collapse in 2014.

The blame lies squarely on those whose job it was to avoid the exact situation we find ourselves in, including current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and former Chairman Alan Greenspan, tasked with preventing financial meltdowns and keeping the nation’s economy strong through monetary and credit policies.

At one point, Wiedemer even calls out Bernanke, saying that his “money from heaven will be the path to hell.” 

But it’s not just the grim predictions that are causing the sensation; rather, it’s the comprehensive blueprint for economic survival that’s really commanding global attention.

The interview offers realistic, step-by-step solutions that the average hard-working American can easily follow.

The overwhelming amount of feedback to publicize the interview, initially screened for a private audience, came with consequences as various online networks repeatedly shut it down and affiliates refused to house the content.

Bernanke and Greenspan were not about to support Wiedemer publicly, nor were the mainstream media.

“People were sitting up and taking notice, and they begged us to make the interview public so they could easily share it,” said Newsmax Financial Publisher Aaron DeHoog, “but unfortunately, it kept getting pulled.”

“Our real concern,” DeHoog added, “is what if only half of Wiedemer’s predictions come true?

“That’s a scary thought for sure. But we want the average American to be prepared, and that is why we will continue to push this video to as many outlets as we can. We want the word to spread.”

My Comments:

Based on my last depression article, I have predicted a 16-year depression commencing Mar 2009, ending 2025. That's based on the 1930's great depression ending in a world war II in 1945, a total of 15 years. I was marginally wrong. As the world wars killed loads of people. The economy grew because there were not enough people manning the post-war posts. This time we don't have such luxury. The people are still around and still as plenty fighting for the same small food pie. This depression is going to last much much longer.

Let's restart the argument:

Baby-boomers started their life in 1946 and their major birth-rate did not stopped till 1964, a total of 18 years. By 2011, the first baby-boomers would have reached retirement age of 65 years old. So for the next 18 years, i.e., 2029, the last of the baby boomers would have reached retirement age too. During this major period, most of these baby boomers would need to liquidate their properties to pay taxes and continued lifestyle.

The USA has no choice but to import more immigrants and print more money to pay for the health care of these aged retirees. This is a major headache for the government. This group of retirees simply get paid pension, eat, sleep and shit and no taxes, but they still get free health care.

So from 2014 to 2029, we still have another total of 15 years of depression to go.

Trump and gang are doomsayers. What they said is true but they are too famous and when they comment, people listen and thus, people start to adjust and hence, no true depression will come.

When this happens, the economy is going to get great inflation and low property price, people will tighten and not spend, i.e., becoming a fucken.

That's when we must collect properties.

Yeah ... I got news that I can get a semi-detached house or detached house for a song. I am so happy. Hopefully can transact. At the same time, another gal just bought a detached house for me at 30k and give it to me as her dowry. I am not a cheapo you know. She's so presumptuous.

Another type of property one should collect is death property. Most children are already working hard in cities. So when their parents died, they sell their ancestry homes and lands away. I have collected a few of these already. Very good prices. Remember always, NO LOANS, PLEASE.

Inflationary pressure will keep the property prices from diving. In fact, it may not even change. But, the cash will get worthless. So by buying it at current prices, the deal is still perfect. Do aim for fire sale though. So far, my deals have been the best fire and death sales. If I can do it, so can any one. It is a matter of getting it right. There is no need to time the purchase. Just go and buy them. If the owner is asshole, just walk away. I cut deals at 40-80% off the list price. I don't care. If they think, they can win and still can get the deal at their hope-against-hope price. Well, good luck!

Since at the same time, the banks are cautious. There would be little or no bank loans involved. With that, the existing owners would be lovely. I just enjoy the look in their eyes. Vacant. Yeah! That's victory to me as I never ever able to get them to suck my cock and work for me regardless how good I pay them. LOL. Well, whites are assholes, but so will be the yellowskins. They are more asshole than the worst whiteskins.

Today too. A brownskin cried twice in front of me. She asked me to love her deep deep. But, she has no money. She offered to suck my cock. Why would I want to fuck an air-head. She must be delusionally. A fuck is only worth 100bucks per pop, nothing more. Just can't believe that, she wants her pussy gold-plated.

a.The "Oracle of Omaha" of the East has Spoken

The last part is here:    Property Investment - White Knights

'China's Warren Buffett' Selling Off His China Assets 
On the 8^th of Jun 2014, Pacific Century Premium Developments and PCCW announced they had signed an agreement to sell Pacific Century Place.  The disposal of a landmark project in the center of Beijing—two office buildings, two blocks of serviced apartments, and a mall—confirmed that Li Ka-shing undefined and son Richard have turned bearish on Chinese real estate. Li, reputed to be the richest man in Asia, and his family have been on a selling spree in Mainland China since last August. During that time, “Superman,” his nickname because of an almost-infallible sense of market timing, has unloaded Guangzhou’s Metropolitan Plaza, Shanghai’s Oriental Financial Center, and Nanjing’s International Financial Center. With Richard’s disposal of Beijing’s Pacific Century Place, the Li family has reportedly sold about $2.9 billion of Chinese property in less than a year.

Li did not earn his nickname for nothing.  He started as a salesman of plastic flowers and bought big in the wake of riots in Hong Kong at the time of China’s Cultural Revolution, snapping up bargains.  He was also an early investor in Mainland China, jumping in before it became fashionable.  That proved to be smart.  He has, wrote one observer, “a record of being able to predict the mainland property market.” 

Li’s maneuvers are now considered a leading indicator.  So what is the significance of his recent sales?  He told the respected Caixin website, just before the Pacific Century Place announcement, that the disposals of properties in China were “sell-high-buy-low” moves.  As he noted, “The talk of our disinvestment is a big joke.”

Yet Li, No. 20 on last month’s Forbes rich list with a fortune of $31.0 billion, is selling in China and not buying.  And it looks like he is leaving not a moment too soon.  Dongfang Daily, a Chinese paper, quotes an unnamed “industry insider” who tells us Superman “will always sell his assets two to three years ahead of crises.”

This time, the crisis will surely hit sooner than that.  Why?  Values are already tumbling.  The sales price for Pacific Century Place, for instance, is thought to be 30% lower than last year’s asking price.

Now that Li is moving out of major China developments, others will probably take the hint.  “Why would you buy anything when Li Ka-shing is selling?” asks Euromoney.  The magazine posed the question in connection with Li dumping assets in his home base, Hong Kong.  There, he has gone on another “de-risking” binge, with among other things, an initial public offering of Power Assets Holdings , a sale of a 24.95% interest in retailer AS Watson, and a disposal of a 60% stake in Terminal 8 West in the Kwai Tsing container port, all this year.  Li also tried to offload supermarket chain ParknShop last year, but the effort failed. 

In March, Li made it clear that just about everything was for sale in the next 12 months.  “We will not rule out the option,” he said.

It would be nice to think that Li, an octogenarian, is dumping assets at the end of an illustrious career so that his China sales say more about him than the state of the Mainland property market.  Yet Li is busy redeploying assets to Europe, indicating he is not exactly contemplating retirement.  And in some ways the Hong Kong disposals are an added indication of his bearishness because the city’s economy is so tightly bound to the rest of China these days.

That’s why Simon Black, an investor and entrepreneur, looks correct.  “Li wants out of China,” he writes.  “All of it.”  Superman’s sudden move out of Chinese property has been termed an “evacuation,” and it looks like he hopes to get out of the rest of his Chinese investments too.  Li, for instance, has been progressively selling his stock in ChangYuan Group, a Shanghai-listed electronics manufacturer based in Guangdong province.  When viewed in connection with his Mainland China and Hong Kong disposals, this move looks part of a relentless trend. 

The Chinese themselves see special significance in Superman’s sales.  Wang Shi, chairman of China Vanke , China’s largest home builder, says the sell-off of “the smart Mr. Li” is a warning.  Critic Luo Zhiyuan said the sales imply “the coming of a crisis.”

We should probably take our cue from the man called “the Warren Buffett of China.”  After all, the Chinese Buffett is unloading his China assets.  

Mr Li Ka Shing is a clever man. He single-handedly built his empire from the 60s-70s. He was early in his game. Now he has huge number of financial analysts to read for him, he is now more invincible than ever.

Typically Asia will feel the crisis 2 to 3 years after the USA or Europe felt it. The reason is simple:   There is always enough juice to fund the Asian markets for a while from USA or Europe's sales proceeds, before the Asian markets ran out of juice too. From the depth of the USA crisis in Mar 2009 to now 2014, the Asian crisis is now long overdue in outing.

Soon this Asian tsunami is going to whip the asses of all fuckens. As I have always said, this is a rather fair world. You fucked others before, you will get fucked in return. That's what life is all about.

Buy assets only during the bitterest winters. In your terms, buy during the ghost months. Buy during the deadest part of the year - July-September. Buy cash please.

I know life is bitter if we choose to label it so. But, there is always a choice. A choice that we can call it our own. I have made that choice my own.

Depression or self-hate, I don't care, I build my own reality. May Tengri bless those who have been honest and kind. In times of darkness, may there be light and warmth in the cold tunnel ... In time, may we all understand the meaning of living a full life.

b.Property Investment - White Knights

The last part is here:   Megatrend - Depression Pushing Through

Finally I am back to my cave. So nice to be home, sweet home. The plane had only 150 passengers, of whom only 5 are yellowskins, i.e., 3%. This is an important percentage. It meant that the yellowskins are not here to push up the property prices. The whites are stuck in their own problems.

Just when I thought I got killer investments in Malaysia, the white agents gave me offers I cannot refuse.

The depression continued to bite. ECB moves deposit rate into negative territory for the first time, as of 05 June 2014, hoping to avoid a Japan's lost decade. This is how serious the case of massive quantitative easing is.

The average return-on-investment in Malaysia is 8 years. I thought I was brillant. How wrong!

The white properties are giving me a return-on-investment of 2 years. This is really a joke. I can't believe my own eyes. Now I have to count my chickens and eggs and hatching them. Shit! I got so little money.

My partner-in-crime always remind me that in every investment, we must always consider its return-on-investment and that return-on-investment must also be immediate. He is wise beyond his years.

b.Mega-Trend - Death of a Fucken Island

The last part is here:   Mega-trend - 16 Year Depression

The strong economic growth of the 1970s ended abruptly at the start of the 1990s. In the late 1980s, abnormalities within the Japanese economic system had fueled a speculative asset price bubble of massive scale by Japanese companies, banks and securities companies ... The combination of exceptionally high land values and low interest rates briefly resulted in heightened liquidity in the market. It led to massive borrowing and heavy investment mostly in domestic and foreign stocks and securities ... A debt crisis followed and the Japanese banks and insurances were now loaded with bad debts. The financial institutions were bailed out through capital infusions from the government, loans from the central bank and the ability to postpone the recognition of losses, ultimately turning them into zombie banks ... these banks kept injecting new funds into unprofitable "zombie firms" to keep them afloat, arguing that they were too big to fail ... However, most of these companies were too debt-ridden to do much more than survive on bail-out funds... Many Japanese firms were burdened with heavy debts, and it became very difficult to obtain credit. Many borrowers turned to sarakin (loan sharks) for loans... The 1990s therefore was the "lost decade" when the economy contracted or grew at a paltry rate... Unemployment rates were high, but not at a crisis level... With the traditional Japanese emphasis on frugality and saving, an impact on an average Japanese family was quite limited, whose standard of living did not deteriorate significantly from what it was in the 1980s... Despite the economic recovery in the 2000s, conspicuous consumption of the 1980s such as lavish spending on whiskey and cars did not return for the most part... Many Japanese companies replaced a large part of their workforce with temporary workers, who had little job security and fewer benefits... As of 2009, these non-traditional employees made up more than a third of the labor force. As of now, the nation's economy has not fully recovered from the 1991 crash...

At its height (1990), Tokyo's retail store space was going for $10,000 per square foot (I have not confirmed this number), this is way too high for any retailer to turn a profit. In the end, the economy tanked and never recover since for the next 20 years and now going towards the next 10 more years (please enlarge and read the graph). I believe another 10 more lost years is not impossible for Japan.

My partner-in-crime always reminded me that property prices cannot be infinite. At best, it can rise is at the rate of the GDP. Otherwise, the risk of having lost decades is real.

When one's pension fund disappeared due to speculative binge in the States in the not-so-distant past, 2009? $360b? One is hard pressed to replace the pension funds lost. The suggested way was to inflate his way through excessive increase in property prices. With the increased property prices, we do have a problem, we need great consumption to support the increase in rentals. Feverish importation of bodies into the fucken little island was the final result.

With priceless pigeon holes going at $1.2m per pop, I wonder how long more before this joke starts to get going. With lost decades in place, I am sure we will have lots of fun.

I may and do sound vindictive. After all, I am but a finest product of that fucken little island too. Hopefully, a phoenix may rise from its ashes. But, I am not too optimistic.

b.Megatrend (Article) - HSBC Bank on Verge of Collapse: Second Major Banking Crash Imminent

The last part is here:   Megatrend - Depression sucks!

HSBC Bank on Verge of Collapse:   Second Major Banking Crash Imminent 
Kerry-anne January 25, 2014 

Concerns about an imminent bank crash were further fuelled today at news that HSBC are restricting the amount of cash that customers can withdraw from their own bank accounts. Customers were told that without proof of the intended use of their own money, HSBC would refuse to release it. This, and other worrying signs point to a possible financial crash in the near future.

HSBC Collapse

HSBC is scrambling to manage a seemingly terminal liquidity crisis (a lack of hard cash) that could see the bank become the next Northern Rock – and trigger a bank crash. The analyst’s advice is for shareholders to sell HSBC investments, and customers to move their accounts elsewhere before the crash.

This from the Telegraph:

Forensic Asia on Tuesday began its coverage of Britain’s largest banking group with a ‘sell’ recommendation, warning the lender had between $63.6bn (£38.7bn) and $92.3bn of “questionable assets” on its balance sheet, ranging from loan loss reserves and accrued interest to deferred tax assets, defined benefit pension schemes and opaque Level 3 assets.

According a report by the BBC’s MoneyBox Programme, HSBC customers have gone to withdraw cash from their accounts, only to find HSBC would not release the funds. Customers were told to make a bank transfer instead, unless they provided documentation proving the intended use of the money. Stephen Cotton attempted a withdrawal and told the programme:

“When we presented them with the withdrawal slip, they declined to give us the money because we could not provide them with a satisfactory explanation for what the money was for. They wanted a letter from the person involved.”

Mr Cotton says the staff refused to tell him how much he could have: “So I wrote out a few slips. I said, ‘Can I have £5,000?’ They said no. I said, ‘Can I have £4,000?’ They said no. And then I wrote one out for £3,000 and they said, ‘OK, we’ll give you that.’ “ 

He asked if he could return later that day to withdraw another £3,000, but he was told he could not do the same thing twice in one day. 

As this was not a change to the Terms and Conditions of your bank account we had no need to pre-notify customers of the change” He wrote to complain to HSBC about the new rules and also that he had not been informed of any change. 

The bank said it did not have to tell him. “As this was not a change to the Terms and Conditions of your bank account, we had no need to pre-notify customers of the change,” HSBC wrote. 

Mr Cotton is not alone, with other customers seeking to withdraw cash amounts over £3,000 facing the same obstacles. While HSBC argue there is comes customer security interest here, the story simply doesn’t add up. Customer identification is required for large withdrawals, not customer intentions – a person’s cash is theirs to withdraw and place wherever they so wish. Instead, HSBC has been found to have a capitalization black hole (gap between actual cash and obligations) of $80bn. The message is simple, get your money out now.

The Gold Rush

The major banks and states appear to be preparing for impending crisis, while pretending to the public that the economic situation is improving.

There is a gold rush underway, with Banks and States frantically buying up as much gold reserve as they can, stoking fears that confidence in currency is at an all-time low. In recent months and weeks, banks like HSBC and JP Morgan, and states such as the US, Germany and China have joined the gold rush, making vast purchases of stocks.

Investment analysts at Seeking Alpha have been monitoring the strange activity on the COMEX, stating:

“keeping track of COMEX inventories is something that is recommended for all serious investors who own physical gold and the gold ETFs (SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), PHYS, and CEF) because any abnormal inventory declines may signify extraordinary events behind the scenes.”

Another Bank Crash? Why?

The crash is in some ways a replay of the last one. The US dollar is a fiat currency (as is the pound sterling, the euro and most other major currencies). This means, it is monopoly money. There is no gold reserve that its values are pegged to. It is simply made up. So how does money get made? A private, for profit central bank prints it and lends it to the government (or other banks) at an interest rate. So the Central Bank prints $100, and gives it to the government on the basis that it returns $101. You may have already spotted the first flaw in this process. The additional $1 can only ever come from the Central Bank. There is never enough money. The second issue is that all money is debt.

This used to be the way pretty much all of the money in circulation came to be. That is, until Investment and Retail Banks got tired of this monopoly on debt based currency, and kicked off the commercial money supply. You might assume that when you take out a loan or other form of credit, a bank gives you that money from its reserves, and you then pay back that loan to the Bank at a given interest rate – the Bank making its profit on the interest rate. You would be wrong. The Bank simply creates that loan on a computer screen. Let’s say you are granted a loan for $100,000. The moment that loan is approved and $100k is entered on the computer – that promise from you to the bank creates $100k for the bank, in that instant. This ledger entry alone creates the $100k, from nothing. Today, over 97% of all money that exists, is made this way.

This is what drove the dodgy lending practises that created the last crisis. But since then, the failure to regulate the markets means that while bailouts hit public services and the real economy – banks were free to continue the same behaviour, bringing the next crash.

The world’s second richest man, Warren Buffet warned us in 2003 that the derivatives market was ‘devised by madmen’ and a ‘weapon of mass destruction’ and we have only seen the first blast in this debt apocalypse.

The news that should have us all worried is: the derivatives market contains $700trn of these debts yet to implode. Global GDP stands at $69.4trn a year. This means that (primarily) Wall Street and the City of London have run up phantom paper debts of more than ten times of the annual earnings of the entire planet.

Not only can the Bankers not pay it back, the combined earning power of the earth could not pay it back in less than ten years if every last cent of our productive power went solely to pay off this debt.

This is why answering the issues with our currencies, our banking practices and economic system are not theoretical or academic – they are a matter of our very survival.

My Comments:

Today is year 2014 - 15 years of depression to go. 

At the end of the day, the banks may not collapse, but their difficulties are guaranteed enormous. With their great difficulties, the years of depression continues.

One of the best methods is to hold on to your cash, let the pain of asset owners be felt greatest at the owners' end. This may not apply to debt-free owners, but their sons might be gambling away their dad's assets. So yes. The pain is currently enormous. You can find asset trying to sell for the last 10 years and still couldn't get rid of it. Just do a 50% mark-down. The owner would let go. Trust me. If not, go for the next one. Don't be shy or kana embarrassed by the agent. Please don't worry too much about the face. It wouldn't hurt a bit.

Do not time your purchases. As long as you find it to be cheap. Just do it. The whole depression pricing is going to be relatively flat, i.e., the price would remain more or less the same. With inflation and what-have-you, this low price is extremely painful to the owners. If you are a worker, save money to buy. If you are self-employed, try to squeeze money to buy. This depression once passed would not come again for a long, long time.

The key assets to get are land sizes. Many whites still don't appreciate the value of land. They find the idea behind land size acquisition stupid. I agreed. Land acquisition on its own is stupid. But, land acquisition coupling with business inputs is absolutely sexy.

b.Megatrend - Depression sucks!

The last part is here:   Megatrend - Depression pushing through

Detroit eligible for Chapter 9 bankruptcy, judge rules

Billions in debt led to largest public bankruptcy in U.S. history   
The Associated Press Posted: Dec 03, 2013 7:47 AM ET Last Updated: Dec 03, 2013 3:05 PM ET

Before the July bankruptcy filing, nearly 40 cents of every dollar collected by Detroit was used to pay debt, a figure that could rise to 65 cents without relief through bankruptcy, according to the city. 

Detroit is eligible to shed billions in debt in the largest public bankruptcy in U.S. history, a judge said today in a long-awaited decision that now shifts the case toward how the city will accomplish that task.

Judge Steven Rhodes turned down objections from unions, pension funds and retirees, which, like other creditors, could lose under any plan to solve $18 billion (all figures US) in long-term liabilities.

But that plan isn't on the judge's desk yet. The issue for Rhodes, who presided over a nine-day trial, was whether Detroit met specific conditions under federal law to stay in bankruptcy court and turn its finances around after years of mismanagement, chronic population loss and collapse of the middle class.

The city has argued that it needs bankruptcy protection for the sake of beleaguered residents suffering from poor services such as slow to nonexistent police response, darkened streetlights and erratic garbage pickup -- a concern mentioned by the judge during the trial.

Before the July filing, nearly 40 cents of every dollar collected by Detroit was used to pay debt, a figure that could rise to 65 cents without relief through bankruptcy, according to the city.

"The status quo is unacceptable," emergency manager Kevyn Orr testified.

Announcing his decision, Rhodes said Detroit has a proud history.

"The city of Detroit was once a hard-working, diverse, vital city, the home of the automobile industry, proud of its nickname the Motor City," he said.

But he then recited a laundry list of Detroit's warts: double-digit unemployment, "catastrophic" debt deals, thousands of vacant homes, dilapidated public safety vehicles and waves of population loss.

Detroit no longer has the resources to provide critical services, the judge said, adding: "The city needs help."

Pensions can be cut 

Rhodes' decision is a critical milestone. He said pensions, like any contract, can be cut, adding that a provision in the Michigan Constitution protecting public pensions isn't a bulletproof shield in a bankruptcy.

The city says pension funds are short by $3.5 billion. Anxious retirees drawing less than $20,000 a year have appeared in court and put an anguished face on the case. Despite his finding, Rhodes cautioned everyone that he won't automatically approve pension cuts that could be part of Detroit's eventual plan to get out of bankruptcy.

There are other wrinkles. Art possibly worth billions at the Detroit Institute of Arts could be part of a solution for creditors, as well as the sale of a water department that serves much of southeastern Michigan. Orr offered just pennies on every dollar owed during meetings with creditors before bankruptcy.

Behind closed doors, mediators, led by another judge, have been meeting with Orr's team and creditors for weeks to explore possible settlements.

Much of the trial, which ended Nov. 8, focused on whether Orr's team had "good-faith" negotiations with creditors before the filing, a key step for a local government to be eligible for Chapter 9. Orr said four weeks were plenty, but unions and pension funds said there never were serious across-the-table talks.

"The governor took more time to interview the consultants to help the city with restructuring than they took to negotiate the restructuring itself. That's absurd," attorney Sharon Levine, representing AFSCME, said at trial.

An appeal of Rhodes' decision is a certainty. Opponents want to go directly to a federal appeals court in Cincinnati, bypassing the usual procedure of having a U.S. District Court judge hear the case.

Orr, a bankruptcy expert, was appointed in March under a Michigan law that allows a governor to send a manager to distressed cities, townships or school districts. A manager has extraordinary powers to reshape local finances without interference from elected officials. But by July, Orr and Gov. Rick Snyder decided bankruptcy was Detroit's best option.

Detroit, a manufacturing hub that offered good-paying, blue-collar jobs, peaked at 1.8 million residents in 1950 but has lost more than a million since then. Tax revenue in a city that is larger in square miles than Manhattan, Boston and San Francisco combined can't reliably cover pensions, retiree health insurance and buckets of debt sold to keep the budget afloat.

Donations fund police, EMS 

Donors have written checks for new police cars and ambulances. A new agency has been created to revive tens of thousands of streetlights that are dim or simply broken after years of vandalism and mismanagement.

While downtown and Midtown are experiencing a rebirth, even apartments with few vacancies, many traditional neighbourhoods are scarred with blight and burned-out bungalows.

Besides financial challenges, Detroit has an unflattering reputation as a dangerous place. In early November, five people were killed in two unrelated shootings just a few days apart. Police Chief James Craig, who arrived last summer, said he was almost carjacked in an unmarked car.

The case occurs at a time of a historic political transition. Former hospital executive Mike Duggan takes over as mayor in January, the third mayor since Kwame Kilpatrick quit in a scandal in 2008 and the first white mayor in largely black Detroit since the 1970s.

Orr, the emergency manager, is in charge at least through next fall, although he's expected to give Duggan more of a role at city hall than the current mayor, Dave Bing, who has little influence in daily operations.

My Comment:
The depression is seriously biting the largest powerhouse of the world. With the consumption at its lowest, the rest of the world will find it hard to cope. With no demand from the big boys, the smaller boys are going to die.

Once upon a time, a little fucken island thought out a very cle-wer plan. The fuckens thought that by having large corporations to set-up factories on that little island. They could supply large labour and at the same time, steal from these corporations technological know-how. Years gone by, hundreds of corporations moved out after the tax incentives ended, leaving only an empty shell, with zero technologies. The fuckens ended up having their cocks jammed in their mouths. How are they going to feed the populace since these assholes are not migrant workers but shitizens, i.e., they got no place to go after getting old?

You might think that I am having 20-20 vision after the event (事后孔明). It is not true. I never allow my skill and knowledge to be used by these fuckens. Since I had achieved nothing, I can't prove my ability, but neither can anyone disprove my ability. So let's keep it that way. I am merely talking cock for those who don't know me.

This depression is going to last for a long while. Even with money printing, it's not going to help. We all going to have 16 years of fun. Instead of complaining money not enough, why not use that little money and put it to good use.

Hint:   Have you ever bought a nice house with large freehold land with only a four-figured sum today?

If you can't even solve the riddle given above, please don't say you have ever arrived. Seriously you are not even a good yellowskin to start off with. A good yellowskin is hard-working, humble, resourceful and cunning. 學而不思則罔，思而不學則殆.

b.MegaTrend - The True Magic of Nature

The last part is here:   Mega-trend - Depression pushing through

My partner-in-crime is truly brilliant. As I have said before, not many guys have a deeper understanding of philosophy than him. He can harness energy from the universe as his own. His skill level is now way beyond any mortals. If that fucken little island had ever engaged his service to the nation, he would make a fine 帅才。 "能领兵者，谓之将也。 能将将者，谓之帅也。" But, unfortunately, fuckens would never know what they missed. There were too many paper generals, but none of them I considered 帅才。To be a 帅才，not only is he good at military strategies, his moral scruples must be up to speed. He does not give in to pressure to do evil. His moral compass must be sharp and pointing correctly upright. 

He explained that technology by man is unfortunately fallible. Every time, a smart guy comes along with his little new-found trick. Every one on the market gets excited about his little toy. He made a rave nifty profit out of it. After about 6 months, a newer smart toy comes into the market. The interest in the older toy is now dead. The original smart guy can't believe his toy is already dead. He then reinvested his entire profits and even poured his entire life-savings to rehash his fledgling toy. He can't believe his formerly extremely popular toy just lose traction like that (read stories about rise of Apple II, rise of IBM PCs, rise of Nokia, rise of Blackberry and so many others). After another 6 months, he not only loses all of his gains, his original capital and his life-savings are gone forever too. The market is so clever. The market just eats up all of his smart toy invention and hard work. To sum, he just did hard work for nothing.

My partner-in-crime said that therefore, trust no smart toys of man, trust instead the workers of nature. Trust the little bacteria, viruses, spores, yeasts, mushrooms, fruits, plants, animals and etc. to do the job for you.

Each of these little critters have billions of years of evolution, revolution and knowledge behind them, for them to be able to survive till now, they must have one hack of survivor skills. They are your best workers. They are tired-less eager beavers. Their technologies are the best you can ever find. So why invent more silly toys of man when you can get the best knowledge and hard work from our almost free tired-less little critters.

Of course, there would be arguments against it by suggesting we are now able to harness wireless technology to better our lives. Granted. No doubt about the contribution made by man did better our life. But, what we are discussing here is building of a very long-term business empire.

He further gave me a ridiculous but too obvious example:   Just take a look at book-covers in a bookstore, notice that book-covers that showed photographs are so much more vibrant than computer design artworks. What a great food for thought. He is a 帅才. I am glad to be of company to him.

Therefore, use the wisdom made by my partner-in-crime to further your quest of long-term business empire building.

b.Megatrend - Depression pushing through

The last part is here:   Mega-trend - War is Needed

Australia Gold Coast Homes at 50% Below 2010 Lure Buyers

After sitting on the sidelines for two years watching home prices plummet, Rina Poke bought her ninth investment property in Australia’s Gold Coast for A$121,000 ($110,388), beating another buyer after a frantic round of bidding.

“This is definitely the time to buy,” Poke, a 44-year-old sales manager at World Gym in the Gold Coast suburb of Ashmore, said after the auction on Aug. 8 at which 16 properties were offered. “Interest rates are at an all-time low, it’s the bottom of the market and prices are on their way up.”

Buyers are finding bargains along Gold Coast’s 43-mile, high-rise-dominated resort strip, where home values have plunged as much as 50 percent in some parts since 2010 and the median price is a third below Sydney’s. Prices in the area known for its surfing beaches rose 0.8 percent in the 12 months through June, compared with 3.8 percent across Australia’s biggest cities, according to researcher RP Data.

“This has been a property crash in its truest sense, but we’ve been seeing some signals that the market is finally bottoming out,” said Louis Christopher, managing director of Sydney-based data firm SQM Research Pty. “But it’s early days.”

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2.25 percentage points of interest rate cuts since November 2011 pushed variable home-loan rates to the lowest since September 2009. The record-low 2.5 percent benchmark rate contributed to a 7 percent jump in home prices in the biggest cities in August since a May 2012 bottom, according to Brisbane-based RP Data.

Tourism Recovery

Helping Gold Coast home prices is the city’s tourism-driven economy, which is recovering as a 16 percent drop in the Australian dollar between April and August encourages more people to vacation at home. The number of local visitors rose 10 percent in the year to March 31, according to Queensland state’s tourism agency.

That’s driving a recovery in jobs, with the unemployment rate in Gold Coast falling to 5.7 percent as of June 30 from 6.6 percent 18 months earlier, state government data show.

Home prices could rise by as much as 10 percent in the next two years as demand increases, according to forecasts from Sydney-based researcher Australian Property Monitors and realtors Ray White Surfers Paradise and Crown Realty International.

Open Houses

Prices in Australia’s major cities are climbing, rising 7 percent in Sydney, 4.3 percent in Melbourne and 2.5 percent in Brisbane, the Queensland capital about 100 kilometers (62 miles) north of Gold Coast, in August from a year earlier, according to RP Data.

Housing affordability in Australia has improved over the past two years with the proportion of Australians’ income required to meet mortgage repayments at 28.7 percent, the lowest level in a decade, the Real Estate Institute of Australia said in a statement on its website yesterday.

Buyers from other parts of the country are drawn by the area’s cheaper prices, said John Newlands, Gold Coast spokesman for the Real Estate Institute of Queensland and principal at Professionals Newlands Real Estate.

“Earlier last year there was no one at open houses,” Newlands said. “Now we’re getting a bit more traction, with three to five groups showing up. And at auctions, we’re seeing multiple bidders, and even price duels,” particularly for lower-priced apartments, he said.

Gold Coast’s A$370,000 median apartment price as of June 30 compares with A$491,845 in Sydney and A$411,714 in Melbourne, according to Australian Property Monitors.

“My husband and I are always looking for a good buy in terms of location and price,” Poke said, adding that similar properties to the one she bought, in the complex where she lives, sold for almost A$200,000 in 2009. “It’s all about pre-empting booms.”

Boom, Bust

Gold Coast, proclaimed a city in 1959, benefited from Australia’s rapid post-World War II economic expansion, with domestic and international tourists and migrants flocking to its beaches and warm climate. It’s now the nation’s sixth-largest city, with a population of 538,300, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The city has ridden real estate booms and busts since the 1940s. Apartment developments surged in the 1950s and the first high-rise residential building, the 10-story Kinkabool, was constructed in 1959. With its cracked-tile stairwells and graffiti in the suburb of Surfers Paradise, it has been overshadowed by gleaming towers that have sprouted since the 1970s.

High-End Focus

The boom continued into the 1980s driven by Japanese investment, the upgrade of the city’s airport and the advent of theme parks. Property values grew virtually unabated from March 1987, when RP Data began keeping records, until the slump that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008, the researcher said. The decline was more drastic and prolonged than the rest of the country as the fallout from the strong local currency and an oversupply of high-end homes planned during boom times ravaged property values.

“Developers had an increasing focus on high-end, owner-occupier units,” Cameron Kusher, senior research analyst at RP Data, wrote in an e-mailed response to questions. “The stock overhang was much larger in the Gold Coast than in most other areas of the country.”

While prices across Australia also fell, shortages of homes in Sydney and strong demand in Perth, driven by Australia’s mining investment boom, kept declines in check.

Prices in the nation’s biggest cities slipped about 7 percent from a peak about three years ago to a trough in September, according to SQM. In Gold Coast, they slumped an average 25 percent from the height of the market in January 2010, SQM figures show. Some areas had declines of as much as 50 percent and are still falling, SQM’s Christopher said.

Supply Shortage

Now, a lack of new supply will support a recovery in prices, said Tony Holland, director of residential project marketing at broker Colliers International.

“We haven’t seen any significant new construction or project activity for over three years,” Holland said in a telephone interview. “In the last 12 years, we’ve not had fewer places for sale or fewer apartments on the market than we do now.”

Fewer apartments on the market hasn’t kept sales from climbing. Unit sales rose for a fifth consecutive quarter in the first three months of 2013 to the highest level in three years, jumping 26 percent from the previous quarter and 78 percent from a year earlier, figures from Colliers show.

Inquiries Jump

The number of inquiries have tripled from a year ago, driven by low interest rates and bargain-seeking inter-state buyers, Andrew Bell, principal at the Ray White Group realtors in Surfers Paradise, said in an interview before the auction held by the broker.

Heimo Eberhardt, 66, has been on the hunt for properties on the Gold Coast for the past six months and said demand has quickly strengthened for those priced below A$500,000. So he’s moved on to more expensive ones.

“People are desperate to get into the lower end of the market, and that’s where the competition is now,” Eberhardt, who already owns two apartments on the Gold Coast, said at the auction.

Q1 Tower

At Q1, the world’s tallest residential tower until it was overtaken by the Torch in Dubai in 2011, one-bedroom apartments that were priced in the high A$200,000 range late last year are now selling for more than A$300,000, said Luke Vaughan, managing partner at Crown Realty, who markets most of the building’s apartments.

Inquiries have jumped 50 percent from a year ago and sales are up to about three transactions a month from an average of one a month in the past three years.

Some of the most expensive three-bedroom homes on the 60th floor and above, with sweeping views of the Pacific Ocean from all windows, are still offered at about 25 percent less than their previous prices, he said.

A full recovery is still some time away, and while “strong, single-digit growth” is possible, it’s unlikely in the next year, Vaughan said. “We’re finding the bottom and there are some great deals to be had, but not all areas of the market have experienced the bottom.” 

This piece of news more or less validated my assessment that we are into the 16-year depression phase. It is going to be a long and hard ice age for all countries. In 2010, it is the year that the first of the baby-boomers (born of 1946) just about to retire the next year, 2011. The property prices of course are then at their highest in 2010 as there was no downward pressure. Immediately the year after, 2011, all hell broke loose. The property prices immediately retraced downwards. By now, 2013, the property in Gold Coast has retraced 50%. 

It is not difficult to understand why there is a retracement of 50%. There are simply not enough new babies to replace the older baby boomers. The prices have to stay subdue for a long, long time. No amount of QEs will ease the pain. Any country such as that fucken little island will burn itself to hell. There simply are no solution.

This depression is liken the beaching of the dolphins on mass suicide mission. It has to be done. Else, there would be too many top dogs in the food chain. It is not gonna be sustainable in the long run. Something got to give.

The wizard in Oz also practices the good news sells and the blue pill. So please don't listen too much into the opinions provided. Just focus on the news data reported. How can anyone feel good when their property prices have just dropped 50% over-night. Even if it recovers 8%, so what? It is just a rebound of only 4% in actual value. Crazy mental masturbations.

Save as much as you could afford to save. Then start to buy land globally on cash terms only. You will come out very happy. For those who don't have the private key, please think harder and deeper before one commits. From the things I read so far, the play level is only at version 0.1. Too weak. Played wrongly, it could extinguish one's life.

b.Megatrend - War is Needed

The last part is here:   Megatrend - 16-year Depression

I am feeling prophetic today. Not for showing off but to realize the art of praying in the temple 廟算. Calculations made in the temple is very important.

Like it or not, the deep depression in 1930 started the world war II in 1939 that ended in 1945. This is a major war effort. Thereafter, since 1946, the west has an unprecedented peace and prosperity. While the west was enjoying the prosperity, a cold war with the eastern bloc was fought (1946-1991). This constant war tension was actually good for the west. The west grew from strength to strength.

But, once the cold war ended, the west immediately needed another major war to game. They then started the gulf war I (1990) and gulf war II (2003). Noticed the approximate 10 years' gap.

To date, another 10 years has gone by. The west is now itching for another war. The reason for war is simple. The west needs tons of money to finance their retirement funds. Their greying population is giving the leaders sleepless nights.

Waging war is no different from defamation suits of that fucken little island. Once the war is concluded, the loser would have to owe the victor a huge sum of money which the loser has to honour using their oil reserves. With these cheap resources at the disposal of the west, they can sustain their lifestyle a little longer.

When they feel poor again, approximately every 10 years at the current rate, they will wage another major war.

The trend is obvious. This coincides with the need to take care of the retiring baby boomers. War is therefore very imminent now. They will come out with all kind of excuses to wage one. Once war is waged, the currency will depreciate and the west will have to pay less in terms of debt and net-worth. It is their way of depreciating their currency with no ill side-effect.

Over time, wars would be more and more frequent. So stay with the winning side, i.e., the whites. Go and stay with food produces. Keep cash to buy up more land globally.

b.Megatrend - 16-year Depression

The last part is here:   Land - Distressed Properties

As stated before, the Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression in the decade preceding World War II. The timing of the Great Depression varied across nations, but in most countries it started in 1930 and lasted until the late 1930s or middle 1940s (a total of 15 years). It was the longest, most widespread, and deepest depression of the 20th century.

In the 21st century, the Great Depression is commonly used as an example of how far the world's economy can decline. The depression originated in the U.S., after the fall in stock prices that began around September 4, 1929, and became worldwide news with the stock market crash of October 29, 1929 (known as Black Tuesday).  The Great Depression had devastating effects in countries rich and poor. Personal income, tax revenue, profits and prices dropped, while international trade plunged by more than 50%. Unemployment in the U.S. rose to 25%, and in some countries rose as high as 33%. Cities all around the world were hit hard, especially those dependent on heavy industry. Construction was virtually halted in many countries. Farming and rural areas suffered as crop prices fell by approximately 60%. Facing plummeting demand with few alternate sources of jobs, areas dependent on primary sector industries such as cash cropping, mining and logging suffered the most. Some economies started to recover by the mid-1930s. In many countries, the negative effects of the Great Depression lasted until the end of World War II.

There are sufficient literature on the causes of the Great Depression, I shall not bother to explain them. If you are interested, you may explore further. But, frankly, a depression is depression for whatever that damn reason. Once the depression gets underway, the world could only solve it by only two things: one, reduce the number of people consuming and two, increase the number of resources. Since, increasing the amount of resources during that time was never possible, the world chose the first option. The world went into another world war.

The result was the world went into one of the best happy eras of our time. The world super-boomed from 1946 to date, a total of 62 years. It was almost abruptly ended in 2008, if not for the intervention of the governments-of-the-day by propping up money supplies. But, this merely kicked the problem ball further down the road, my partner-in-crime always says we will meet the ball soon enough and the ball would be one hack of a big mama. it would be even harder to game the ball. The leaders prayed like hell that the ball would not come during their watch. Meantime, suck the system dry lor.

The super boom brought a huge growth of population - the baby boomers. These baby boomers are now retiring and have been liquidating their full assets in earnest now. I called these baby-boomers, the sin of excesses. There are simply too many of them and so uncountable at any one time. I was fortunately to have met some of them liquidating their land. The drop in price is not for fools. It is very hard and very real. There are simply not enough takers of what they are going to encash. Since these baby boomers have gotten their holdings cheap, it doesn't matter how much they would let go. It is going to be one crazy sale season. The joke is, of course, there would be very few takers.

My estimate is 16-year worth of depression from today. No amount of money-printing or QEs will defer the problem of over-supply caused by these filthy-rich retirees. They are your super-rich uncles and aunts. We are only their very poor nephews.

So don't hope for any price recovery, don't hope for any sale recovery and don't hope for any market expansion. None of these events will happen. The so-called "depression", in my terms, does not implies the usual suggestion by the financial gurus. What I meant is the world will be stuck in this non-performance mode for the next 16 years, just like Japan in her lost 3 decades. So make full use of your current resources to command a better living.

b.MegaTrend - Baby Boomer Bubble has Burst

Baby Boomers

The phrase baby boom has been used since the late twentieth century to refer to a noticeable temporary increase in the birth rate during the post-world wars, i.e., 1946-1964.

In 2008-2009, the financial markets actually melt down and threatened another round of the class 1930’s depression. I don’t understand why? Now I know.  Baby boomers were the first generation to be raised with fast food, principally led by McDonalds, after the world wars. And together, these post-war kids and the quick-service industry have grown and evolved. Now, noticeably McDonalds is not doing as well. Why? Well, the first of the baby boomers are now retiring starting from 2011 (65 years of age). Over the next 20 years, bit by bit, these baby boomers would retire. From 1946 to now, all of its boom was due to the baby boomers. Their needs and their kids’ needs were the single largest concern and target of all commercial corporations. 

When the first baby boomers started to retire, suddenly the white land realized that they don’t have enough health insurance safe-guards to handle this sudden large number of retirees. They even change a white president for a black one, hoping that they can have a change of luck. This is how serious the problem has snow-balled. I also didn’t realize until quite recently that indeed we have a problem.

The mythical Baby Boomer Bubble has Burst

I personally engaged the following:

• Several of my online gamers mentioned about moving from a major city to a rural sub-urb for retirement. I asked why? Each mentioned that he no longer has regular income and hence, would not be wise to stay in a large city and spend his miserable pension. He will get a better bang for his money in the sub-urb. In the sub-urb, he no longer needs to fight with others for the trains and roads. He simply wanted to sell his expensive city house for a cheapo alternative and keep the difference.

• Many of my land deals were of very long historical records, i.e., 35-90 years. Ordinarily, I didn’t decipher any note-worthiness from this similarity. But now, I suspect the baby boomers were the main issue. It seems that many of these baby boomer retirees initially being gainfully employed would not see a need to sell any of their dormant or active assets. But, once they are retired, they wouldn’t have any more cash flow to maintain their lifestyles. The single most obvious thing to do is to liquidate as quickly as possible those assets which they find no obvious profitable deployment, such as land banking. They try to sell and I caught them. Why? Because I am a cheapo. I only go for obviously cheap distressed stuff.

• Many longer-termed immigrants told me that they are currently very home-sick. They wanted to sell their white houses and go back to their former home countries for retirement. But, they can’t do it as the prices back in their ex-home countries have risen to a level that is beyond reason. They showed me great regrets and sadness. The alternative is for them to move to a white sub-urb and keep the difference. But, this option means that they will move away from their current kakis and no more blow-waters (chit-chats).

These incidents led to a single conclusion:   No matter how rich these baby boomers are. Many are not savers. Their single largest asset must therefore be land ownership. They are indeed fast in releasing them.

Supply outpacing Demand

Based on the chart, there would only be 60 newly-wed takers for every 100 baby boomer retiree liquidating their assets each year. Supply would far outpace demand. This is going to continue till the last of the baby boomers retires, i.e., 2029. We would have a good 16 years to catch their land banks.

With the frequent and serious world-wide quantitative easing, we are going to have real fun.

We live in an exciting time where we are now given a second chance to collect land. Hence, for the next 16 years, do nothing but collect land. You can improve the infrastructures of the land later, i.e., after 2029.

Although you should never structure a business based on trends, but this baby boomer trend is too mega to be ignored. So use it to the best of your interest.