Sunday 26 January 2014

p.The Ultimate Bet

The last part is here:   The Balance of Business Power

I played two games - Texas Hold'em and Go.

Texas Hold'em - There are usually 8-10 players on the table. If based on the law of the averages, your chance of winning any hand is only 1/8 or 1/10. Therefore, unless you have a good starting hand, it is not advisable to push all the way. Even if you have a good hand, you might encounter antagonistic player leading to not-so-clear win. On the other cases, your winning hand is so strong that the other players just drop off early within a fight, wasting the good hand. Your winnings would then be unusually limited. The good news is that in the game of poker, you may bet them all one shot. Win or loss you will know by the end of the hand.
A simple check on the players' statistics, you would notice that many players are reckless, their winnings are continually low as compared to their highest cash achieved. These are high rollers, win big, lose big. But, their average cash are always very low compared to their top score. I have not discounted those players that paid real money for chips. There are also players who kept asking for chips whenever one player wins big. Cash accumulation is only possible by slow and small bets.

Go - In the game of go, it is usual that a weaker player would be given handicap stones to start, in the hope to find a balanced strength game. During the game, if you do reckless and adventurous moves, your ass would be whipped big time. If your moves are timid and small, again your might not lose any stones but the game is still not a win, because not only captured stones are counted, territory secured is also counted. By playing securely, the territory would be limited. So a balance of adventurism and self-defence is key to winning.
Unfortunately, trying to win big is never possible if the opponent is careful. Even if you win big occasionally, your rank won't advance very far. You need very consistent improvement.

Based on the above games, reflecting life, I realise that in business, never bet one big time and hope to win. This is never a winning strategy. Even if you have bet and won this round. You might still be punished the next round.

I saw so many examples in business that their failures were definite.

I believe in collaborative work. Your suppliers are not stupid. Your co-workers are not stupid. Your buyers are not stupid. Treat them with absolute respect. If they reply with disrespect, then it is only a matter of time that they would be dropped. No need for any sleight of hand.

If they imposed draconian condition like my retailers, I would bear with them. Slowly but surely, I removed one after 5 years and another after 10 years. This is a slow and painful passage but it can be done.

In the end, by not betting on any risk, winning is assured. Please don't believe on bullshit like high risk, high return; low risk, low return. To me, high risk means ultra high losses guaranteed. Low risk means still losses. The best is to take no risk. Sun Tzu said so. Pay everything using cash on hand. If you are without cash, I ever live on $1 per day for a long, long time. As long you pay every thing using cash, the banks would not come after you. By being debt-free, your mind would be free to think deeply before action.

Never bet more than 5% of your total assets at any one time. If possible, don't bet at all. Let the opponents resign to their fate.

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