Wednesday, 4 December 2013

b.Passion Business V - Alpaca

The last part is here:   Passion business IV - Black Périgord Truffles (as a)

I have decided to play in this business-type.

Main driver:   Farm lands are not easy to own and hold. The government-of-the-day happy happy will cut a road, happy happy will run power lines, happy happy will buy back, happy happy change the land of neigbouring to rubbish, thus forcing you to quit prematurely. They want to see you working on your land. Sit idle, they will rob you blind. Government-of-the-day hates land squatters or land banking.

Why Alpaca?    For every cow, you can keep 10 alpacas. For every sheep, you can keep 2 alpacas. Alpacas are hardy and don't die easily. Alpacas are low on food quality. For every acre, you can keep up to 10. Alpacas can live up to 20 years and achieve maturity at age 2 years onwards.

Negatives:    The fleece produced by alpacas are superior products but poorly priced. The farmers are currently not into fleece production but nonsensical pure bred competitions. Although this is a negative, one can turn it around by going into pure fleece. But, the current fleece price is very poor, after sale (about 6-8 lbs), the money can only feed the animal for the year. There is no profit. The only profit is in their off-springs.

Positives:   The farm needs not be too well-kept. Fence needs not be too high, except against predators. The status of the farm is very well-protected. The farm will look extremely vibrant.

Investment Returns:   Assuming both the male and female are sold at the same price, the reason being that some bucks are good priced, which sometimes the female also fetch good price. On the whole, female being seen as reproductive usually fetch better prices. But, for analysis, let's leave it as equal. Simple and easy to understand. It is not impossible.

Let's start with 3x3-years-old females and 2x3-years-old males (all productive); all males not buck quality would be sold as soon as possible; all females should be sold by the 8th year, else the price and fleece are crapped; the ratio of males and females are 1:1 equal chance for each sex; always choose one or two young strong bucks to sex all females:

Year 0:   F3, F3, F3, M3, M3 (e.g., F2 - first letter is sex, second letter is age, i.e., female, 2-years-old)
Year 1:   F4, m1, F4, f1, F4, m1, M4, M4
Year 2:   F5, f1, M2, F5, m1, F2, F5, f1, M2, M5, M5
Year 3:   F6, m1, F2, M3, F6, f1, M2, F3, F6, m1, F2, M3, M6, M6
Year 4:   F7, f1, M2, F3, M4, F7, m1, M3, F4, f1, F7, m1, M2, F3, M4, M7, M7
Year 5:   F8, f1, F2, M3, F4, m1, M5, F8, f1, M2, M4, F5, m1, F2, F8, f1, M2, M3, F4, m1, M5, M8, M8
Year 6:   F9, f1, F2, F3, M4, F5, m1, M2, M6, F9, f1, F2, M3, M5, F6, m1, M2, F3, F9, f1, F2, M3, M4, F5, m1, M2, M6, M9, M9

From 5 animals to 29 in 6 years, i.e., IRR of 34%. Not too bad for a return. If in time, the fleece is saleable, then the return is even more fun.

Year 7:   F10, f1, F2, F3, F4, m1, M5, F6, f1, M2, M3, M7, F10, m1, F2, F3, M4, M6, F7, f1, M2, M3, F4, m1, F10, f1, F2, F3, M4, M5, F6, m1, M2, M3, M7, M10, M10
Year 8:   F11, f1, F2, F3, F4, m1, F5, f1, M2, M6, F7, m1, F2, M3, M4, M8, F11, f1, M2, F3, F4, m1, M5, M7, F8, f1, F2, M3, M4, F5, m1, M2, F11, f1, F2, F3, M5, M6, F7, m1, M3, M4, M8, M11, M11
Year 9:   F12, f1, F2, F3, F4, m1, F5, f1, M2, F6, m1, F2, M3, M7, F8, f1, M2, F3, M4, M5, M8, F12, m1, F2, M3, F4, f1, F5, m1, M2, M6, M8, F9, f1, F2, F3, M4, M5, F6, m1, M2, M3, F12, f1, F2, F3, F4, m1, M6, M7, F8, f1, M2, M4, M5, M9, M12, M12
Year 10:   F13, m1, F2, F3, F4, f1, F5, m1, M2, F6, f1, F2, M3, F7, m1, M2, F3, M4, M8, F9, f1, F2, M3, F4, m1, M5, M6, M9, F13, f1, M2, F3, M4, F5, m1, F2, F6, f1, M2, M3, M7, M9, F10, m1, F2, F3, F4, f1, M5, M6, F7, m1, M2, M3, M4, F13, f1, F2, F3, F4, m1, M2, M7, M8, F9, f1, F2, M3, M5, M6, M10, M13, M13

From 5 animals to 73 in 10 years, i.e., IRR of 31%. Quite consistent or at least 30%.

As for the feed, it is almost free as the land area is plenty.

After a while, the herd is almost free. Every year, the off-springs would be enough to feed you. There is no IRR to talk about. It is just free money like an orchard.

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